"I think we’re going to be pleasantly surprised," croaked a drip of a man wearing blue jeans, white Asics running sneakers, and a green Tom Birmingham T-shirt at Anthony’s in Malden, the setting for the Senate president’s intended "victory party." Realizing what he’d just acknowledged by using the word "surprised" — that not all Birmingham fans were as confident of their candidate’s conquest as their "HE FIGHTS FOR US. AND WINS." jerseys might indicate — the wispy supporter immediately amended his statement. "Not surprised exactly," he blurted. "I won’t be surprised." Within an hour, he was nowhere in sight.

That was at 8:39 p.m., when there was still time for this cubed-cheese fest to turn into a "victory party," still time for Massachusetts to be "surprised" by the gubernatorial-primary results. But by 9:35 p.m., after 18 percent of the state’s precincts had reported and NECN had posted State Treasurer Shannon O’Brien with 33 percent of the vote and Birmingham with only 25, the doubt at Anthony’s became more audible. "All you men and women," State Representative Eugene O’Flaherty said, addressing the crowd, "you’re the people that if this comes through tonight, brought this home." That "if" reverberated throughout the function hall.

But Anthony’s wasn’t a solemn place. It was a place that had already braced itself for the blow of defeat, and so the thwack hurt less when it landed. No one here was in shock, and they would’ve been fibbing if they said they were: the polls had been projecting Birmingham’s loss for a month, and even a September 10 press release linked to from the Chelsea native’s campaign Web site could boast only that he "has moved into second place." (http://www.tombirmingham.org/pages/sept10pollmemo.pdf) So at 11:02 p.m., when Birmingham finally ascended the stage to deliver his concession speech to the strains of Tom Petty’s "I Won’t Back Down," more fitting would have been R.E.M.’s "It’s the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)."

It is the end of Birmingham’s world, as he knows it. Throughout his 11-year residence under the gold dome, the Rhodes scholar has been cast in many roles: Senate president, chair of the Senate Ways and Means Committee, education-reform architect, Billy Bulger buddy, proletariat paladin, Finneran’s fencing partner, botched-budget affiliate, aloof legislator, labor lover. And that was his biggest problem throughout his campaign — he wasn’t able to convince voters that he was anything other than an old-school politico, a composite of all the things they don’t like about Beacon Hill.

In his concession speech, Birmingham actually came across as somewhat sweet — a quality he didn’t project during his campaign. Immediately throwing his support to Shannon O’Brien, the Harvard grad seemed reconciled to his loss, but not crushed by it. He doted on his mother, Agnes — his adorable, white-haired "secret weapon," who became something of an icon during his run. He lauded his friends, thanked the AFL/CIO for its backing, and publicly declared his love for his wife, Selma, as well as for all the people in the room. As Birmingham spoke, his family’s eyes welled up with tears.

But don’t you cry for Tom Birmingham. As Chelsea attorney Vincent Cammarano put it right after NECN declared O’Brien’s triumph: "Birmingham will have no problem. A lot of people owe him favors."