E-Mail This Article to a Friend ODDS AND SODS Football follies BY CHRIS WRIGHT

Listening to people around here, you’d think the Patriots were a shoo-in to win the Super Bowl on Sunday. Indeed, in a region that’s long adopted a somewhat desolate attitude toward its sports teams, optimism is finally getting the upper hand. At least one Pats fan, however, is a little worried about this development. "I’m concerned," says Dana Forman, the Cassandra in question. "This intense media coverage, these sports shows presenting the idea that the Pats will win. I’m concerned that people will overextend themselves."

Forman isn’t referring to the guzzling of beer or the gorging on potato chips — though these things trouble him too. As president of Forman Consulting — an organization that educates the public about problem gambling and other addictive behaviors — Forman’s main issue is the estimated $4 billion that will be wagered on the game this year. And the losses that will result. "Of course, prior to the Super Bowl everything’s rosy," he says. "There’s hope. This is a great time right now. It’s Monday, February 2, that people will say, ‘How am I going to pay for this?’"

Though sports betting isn’t quite the hot-button issue that the state lottery and casino gambling are, there are times when it undergoes dramatic spikes — the World Series, March Madness, Super Bowl Sunday. According to Forman, the pursuit also targets a vulnerable segment of society — dumb kids. "College-aged young men are particularly susceptible," he says. "They’re emotionally immature, they may feel invincible. Some may have had some significant wins, which fosters a belief that they can now beat the odds. I’m here to remind people that in the long run you will lose — not you might lose, you will lose."

Of course, kids aren’t the only people who fall prey to the gambling bug. "Everyone and anyone is susceptible," Forman says. "You hear often of very prominent people who develop a problem." Not so long ago, he continues, a high-profile restaurateur right here in Boston caught the bug in a big way. "I don’t want to name any names, but people lose their businesses." And it gets worse than this. "Gambling is linked to crime and drug use. People do outrageous things, illegal things, to get money to gamble. There have been known cases where people have taken their lives."

Forman is well aware that we in New England don’t get to enjoy sporting success very often, and that we don’t necessarily want someone sullying our fleeting happiness with tales of bankruptcy and suicide. "I don’t want to be a killjoy," he says. "In most cases, a small wager does no harm for those who don’t have a problem. I’m just recommending that people stay within their limits, bet what they can reasonably afford."

And then, of course, there are those who actually win — who not only call the right team, but who get the spread right. These are the people who really worry Forman. "Even if the game turns out exactly the way you thought," he says. "Even if you pick the right score, you have to remember that this is a matter of luck. You didn’t know. Try predicting a hundred games, and you’ll see how random it really is."