In 2007, with no mayoral election and few contested Council races, fewer than 50,000 Bostonians cast ballots. In 2005, with a weakly contested mayoral challenge, close to 100,000 did.
But in 2006, with Patrick on the ballot, turnout soared to more than 150,000. And in 2008, for Obama, 236,000 came to the polls.
The area with the biggest turnout swing — that is, where voters are most likely to vote in big elections and not small ones — are some of Yoon's best pockets of support. They include Beacon Hill, Back Bay, Roxbury, and other parts of Dorchester.
Several political observers in the city put it bluntly: New Bostonians — including minorities and younger progressives — don't vote in city elections. Yoon, as the New Boston candidate, is dead meat if that holds true in 2009.
On the other hand, as a Yoon advisor argues, Yoon has the most to gain from an increase in turnout. If Bostonians get excited about this election, Yoon could be the man for the moment — and could be mayor of Boston a year from now.
To read the "Talking Politics" blog, go to thePhoenix.com/talkingpolitics. David S. Bernstein can be reached at dbernstein[a]phx.com.
