As Deval Patrick flails, Tim Cahill is positioning himself to run. And that's a-okay with the Patrick team.
By DAVID S. BERNSTEIN | April 1, 2009
Bad timing
Whatever comes of the State Ethics Commission's investigation into Cahill's friend Thomas Kelly, this is exactly the wrong political atmosphere in which to have ethics and pay-to-play charges swirling around. The allegations involving Kelly are troubling, and could get worse. If it does — and Cahill suddenly finds the "pay-to-play" microscope is on him — other behavior could then look bad in that context. Cahill's abundant fundraising has always included large sums from those with business before him: money managers who make percentages of what Cahill invests through them, for example, and liquor distributors who deal with the Alcoholic Beverage Control Commission. Tone deaf: Can Gov. Deval hear the thunder of the jeers? By David S. Bernstein. |
Whereas a few months ago it seemed that no one could pose a serious threat to any re-election campaign mounted by Governor Deval Patrick, a recent string of missteps — including the doomed appointment of State Senator Marian Walsh to a high-paying, long-unfilled position — has suddenly made him very vulnerable. Measuring the political winds, State Treasurer Tim Cahill has of late thrust himself into the spotlight to mount a realistic challenge to Patrick, either in the Democratic primary or, more likely, as an independent in the general election. In fact, at this juncture, most insiders see a Patrick-Cahill showdown as all but inevitable.But it hasn't seemed to cause much of a stir with those inside the Patrick camp. In fact, it may be that this is exactly the match-up they would like to see.
Cahill has always been talked about as a likely gubernatorial candidate — someday. He is a prolific fundraiser, with roughly $3 million in his campaign account — far more than Patrick himself, let alone other potential challengers. He has a statewide organization. And, he has been a vocal critic of Patrick's proposals, particularly accusing the governor of spending too much, taking too much from state reserves, and proposing taxes, tolls, and fees to raise revenue.
But few insiders thought that Cahill would run against Patrick — until just recently. That's evident in recent conversations the Phoenix has had with Beacon Hill politicos. It's also manifest in a Suffolk University poll conducted for WHDH-TV, which included only one head-to-head match-up for governor: Patrick versus Cahill.
The results, which showed Cahill with a slight lead (35 to 30 percent), have further fanned the flames around Cahill's potential candidacy.
The emergence of Cahill as a presumed challenger to Patrick is also likely to change the political dynamics of the entire would-be field. Potential Republican candidates — such as Harvard Pilgrim president and CEO Charlie Baker, who served in Governor Bill Weld's administration — who may have been considering a challenge to Patrick, may now conclude that they would be stuck in a three-way race (presuming Cahill runs as an independent), splitting the anti-incumbent votes with Cahill.
Whether or not Cahill really intends to run as an independent — and one person close to Cahill's inner circle says that his preference is still to run as a Democrat — the very rumor may keep Republicans like Baker on the sidelines.
And the Patrick folks may be happy to let Cahill do that.
Related:
Elephant in the Room, Donkeys kicking Timilty, Ready to rumble, More 
- Elephant in the Room
Platoons of state Republicans, energized by Scott Brown's stunning victory over Democrat Martha Coakley last week, are setting their sights on November.
- Donkeys kicking Timilty
As if Democrats don't have enough problems with attacks from tea-bagging circus clowns, now one local pol is being targeted by fellow donkeys.
- Ready to rumble
Last summer, the upcoming race that got most Bay State politicos salivating was the run for governor.
- The Quiet Storm
In recent weeks, Governor Deval Patrick has been receiving some of his best press in a long time — which is to say, he’s gotten very little coverage at all.
- Chaos Theory
In less than two weeks, when Massachusetts voters elect Martha Coakley to the US Senate — let's not pretend that Republican state senator Scott Brown has any chance of pulling off the monumental upset — they will trigger a massive domino effect that has the state's political class buzzing with anticipation.
- Brown Bagging
If you are finding it hard to get enthused about the seemingly preordained drubbing that Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley will give to the GOP nominee, State Senator Scott Brown, in the special election for US Senate, you are not alone.
- Let's get serious
The odds are that casino gambling is coming to Massachusetts. The state’s big three — Governor Deval Patrick, State Senate President Therese Murray, and House Speaker Robert DeLeo — are all in favor.
- Gifts of the magi
OK, so math isn't Poliquin's strong point. And he's a little shaky on consistency. But are those minor flaws enough to convince Santa to leave coal in his stocking?
- Down ballot drama
The race for governor and the scramble to replace retiring Representative Patrick J. Kennedy have obsessed Rhode Island's chattering class. But all the talk has obscured an intriguing set of "down ballot" races for lieutenant governor, attorney general, treasurer, and secretary of state.
- State of flux
A few weeks ago, the state legislature headed into its winter break with what might be called a flurry of inactivity.
- Patrick's paradox
Governor Deval Patrick may be the incumbent, but he enters the race for the most thankless statewide job in Massachusetts as an underdog.
- Less
Topics:
Talking Politics
, Deval Patrick, Deval Patrick, Suffolk University, More
, Deval Patrick, Deval Patrick, Suffolk University, Shannon O'Brien, Massachusetts governor's race, Campaign Ethics, 2010, Charlie Baker, U.S. Government, U.S. State Government, Less
