JOHN TOBIN AND Mike Rush, candidates for the Jamaica Plain/West Roxbury district city-council seat, are everything a political consultant could dream of — ambitious, handsome, young white men intent on improving education and increasing affordable housing. Even better for an aspiring Boston pol, they’re both Irish Catholic and hail from West Roxbury, a neighborhood known for its eye-popping voter turnout. But for those same reasons, they’re precisely not what many long-time activists in liberal Jamaica Plain — the other half of the district — want for their city councilor. " I like them both, they’re both good kids, but they don’t represent the depth and breadth and diversity of what JP is, " says Mimi Turchinetz, the former co-chair of Jamaica Plain’s Ward 19 Democratic Committee.

For the past 18 years — ever since district seats were created — Maura Hennigan has represented Jamaica Plain and West Roxbury on the Boston City Council, a tough balancing act because of the stark differences between the two neighborhoods. JP, filled with students, professionals, gay men and lesbians, a smattering of young families, and people of many ethnic backgrounds, is one of the most diverse neighborhoods in the city. West Roxbury, on the other hand, is still a heavily Irish, middle-class enclave.

The progressive Hennigan was able to balance the neighborhoods’ needs, though she took flak from both sides. During her 1997 state-senate campaign, many residents of liberal Jamaica Plain were put off by her pro-death-penalty stance and her photo ops with the family of Jeffrey Curley, a child who had been killed in a grisly murder; it looked to some like rank political opportunism. The neighborhood even ended up voting against her. On the other hand, some in West Roxbury were angered by her vigorous support for the proposed expansion of the Patrick Lyndon pilot school several years ago; they complained of the traffic disruptions it would cause. Still, says Steve Smith, the vice-chair of West Roxbury’s Ward 20 Democratic Committee, " she was the only person who bridged the perceived gap between West Roxbury and JP. "

But this fall, Hennigan is running citywide so she can focus more attention on broad municipal issues such as waterfront development. That means an unprecedented opening in District Six, and Jamaica Plain activists had hoped to send a minority candidate to fill the seat. But less than a month before the September 25 preliminary election, that doesn’t look likely. Though two JP natives (a biracial man, Edgar Williams, and Elaine Rigas, a Greek-American Republican) are running, they’re relatively unknown and therefore considered extreme long shots. Tobin and Rush, however, have run before (Tobin tried his luck in 1995 and 1999; Rush ran for the first time two years ago). Their work on the stump — attending community meetings, building name recognition and organizational strength — marks them as clear front-runners.

West Roxbury is also a powerful base from which to launch a candidacy. The neighborhood is a potent political force in the city — the parts of it in District Six had 43 percent turnout in 1999, compared to 24 percent citywide. Meanwhile, Jamaica Plain, which is divided into three wards, had below-average turnout in Wards 10 and 11 (18 and 22 percent, respectively), and a 33 percent showing in Ward 19. " Once again, you see the re-establishment of the same patterns that have been there before, " says Democratic political consultant Michael Goldman. " Those areas which are political and have political people stay political, whether it’s South Boston, with [congressional candidate Stephen] Lynch running, or the kids out of West Roxbury. "

But that doesn’t mean West Roxbury can simply dictate who the councilor will be. Jamaica Plain has proved crucial in previous elections, pushing Hennigan over the top during the hotly contested 1999 final election against Tobin (Rush was defeated in the preliminary). Tobin beat Hennigan 55 percent to 45 percent in West Roxbury, but she stomped him three-to-one in JP, giving her the edge overall. With two West Roxbury candidates likely to split that neighborhood’s vote this year, JP will play kingmaker again. " Ultimately, JP will decide the race, " says Turchinetz. In order to win, Tobin and Rush have to replicate Hennigan’s difficult balancing act. Says former at-large city-council candidate Greg Timilty, " This time around, it’s going to be the person who can cross the Rubicon from West Roxbury into Jamaica Plain. "

IT’S ALREADY clear that the race will be tight. Since Hennigan announced in January that she’s leaving the seat, Tobin (no relation to former Boston mayor and governor Maurice Tobin) has been door-knocking daily, attending community meetings, and phoning local residents with pleas for support. Rush got an even earlier start, distributing literature at the polls last November during the presidential election. The spirited race makes for grassroots campaigning at its finest: " I’ve seen both Rush and Tobin working, going to events, shaking hands, working their base, " says Jose Vincenty, a JP resident who unsuccessfully ran for an at-large council seat in 1993.

Rush and Tobin’s West Roxbury backers are centered in their home parishes: Tobin has a base in Holy Name Church, while Rush draws support from members of Saint Theresa’s. But overall, pundits consider Tobin stronger in West Roxbury because of his success two years ago. " I know Tobin is consolidating some of his base in West Roxbury, " concedes Democratic State Committee member Wayne Wilson, a Rush supporter. Smith agrees: " I think in West Roxbury it looks like it’s John Tobin’s to lose. " His organization is also formidable — for instance, while most campaigns struggle for half a dozen people to hold signs on a given evening, he drew 25 volunteers to a sign-waving two weeks ago. He also has five-person phone banks operating four nights a week, a Herculean effort for a local race. Former at-large councilor Larry DiCara is impressed by his visibility in the district: " Someone told me Tobin will put up 600 signs, " he says (a figure Tobin confirms). " That’s an extraordinary number. I don’t know if I ever put up 600 signs citywide. "

But Rush is also working exceptionally hard, and his early campaign start gives him a boost. Tobin’s name recognition, a benefit of his 1995 bid, may have dampened Rush’s first-time results two years ago. But now that he has campaign experience under his belt and has been campaigning for this seat for nearly a year, he may be able to cut into Tobin’s West Roxbury totals.

The real race, however, will be for Jamaica Plain. " Mike Rush has done a better job in reaching out to JP, " says Eleanor LeCain, a former member of the JP Neighborhood Council. " He’s been here a lot; I’ve seen him everywhere. " But Tobin has been making the case that he’s the true progressive in the race, though it’s not at all clear yet whether he has succeeded. Says Goldman, " If one person looked more sensitive to issues in JP, which is more liberal, they’d have a huge advantage. "

It’s going to be hard for either candidate to distinguish himself among voters, though. Rush and Tobin have a lot in common, from their gender and neighborhood (men from West Roxbury) to their politics (pro-domestic partnership/anti-abortion) to their youth (Tobin is 32, Rush is 27). They even share an employer, Catholic Memorial High School (Tobin works in the development office, while Rush is a history teacher). With profiles that similar, the front-runners are forced to rely heavily on personality.

Rush is banking on his earnest, nice-guy appeal. " I’m an educator; that’s one of the best assets I bring to the table, " he says. " Education doesn’t stop with young people; it’s seniors, everyone. " He’s also making the improvement of city libraries a central campaign theme. The approach seems to be working. He was praised for his good sportsmanship in the 1999 race, with the Boston Globe noting last October that he " won praise for waging an energetic, positive campaign, leaving a good taste in voters’ mouths. " Supporter Wilson agrees: " I think he’s more personable. He can deal with people more on a one-to-one basis. "