E-Mail This Article to a Friend Breaths of fresh air Next year’s at-large race could shake up a stagnant city council and transform Boston’s political landscape BY ADAM REILLY

NEXT YEAR’S LOCAL elections offer the potential for real change — unlike in 2003, when every Boston city councilor was re-elected and the city’s political landscape remained largely unaltered. For starters, Boston will have its first mayoral election since 2001. Tom Menino is well on his way to becoming Boston’s longest-serving mayor and seems intent on seeking re-election, though he hasn’t officially announced his candidacy. The prevailing wisdom is that at-large city councilor Maura Hennigan will run against him and lose badly, much as Peggy Davis-Mullen did four years ago. But even if the mayoral race is a rout, it will focus attention on Menino’s critics and force the mayor to justify the decisions he’s made over the last four years. Given Menino’s oratorical shortcomings and notoriously thin skin, this should be something to behold.

What’s more, a genuinely competitive race is taking shape for the council’s four at-large seats. In addition to Patricia White and Matt O’Malley, who both ran strong but unsuccessful races two years ago, newcomers Sam Yoon and John Connolly are also regarded as serious candidates. (White and Yoon have officially entered the race; O’Malley and Connolly haven’t yet, but City Hall observers view their announcements as mere formalities.) If each of the sitting at-large councilors — Hennigan, council president Michael Flaherty, Felix Arroyo, and Steve Murphy — seeks re-election, the four challengers will force the incumbents to work harder than they have in years, and if one of them falters, the council could get at least one fresh face. But if Hennigan and Murphy have other plans — and they may — two of the four at-large seats could end up changing hands.

Why is this important? At-large contests, which require candidates to run citywide, demand strong campaigning and fundraising skills. They tend to attract individuals with lofty political goals, and winning an at-large seat immediately establishes the victor as a potent political force. Top the ticket a few times like Flaherty, or finish second as Arroyo did in 2003, and people start mentioning you as a possible mayoral candidate. If half the at-large seats change hands next year, the council will get a much-needed infusion of new energy. And with Menino running for what could be the last time, the city’s long-term political direction could shift as well.

FIRST, HOWEVER, Hennigan has to commit to what would probably be a quixotic and career-ending mayoral run. The 53-year-old Jamaica Plain resident has political ambition in her blood: her grandfather, James Hennigan, was a state representative and senator; her father, James Jr., is a former state senator, school-committee president, and Suffolk County register of probate who reputedly coveted the secretary-of-education job under Jimmy Carter. (He didn’t get it.) On the city level, Maura Hennigan has consistently fared well, winning re-election as District Six councilor 10 times before nabbing an at-large seat in 2001 and keeping it in 2003. Seven years ago, though, Hennigan failed badly in her effort to win the state Senate seat once held by her father.

Is she really willing to challenge the Menino machine? Given Hennigan’s systematically contrarian approach to the Menino administration (see "Key to the City," News and Features, August 27), most observers believe the answer is yes. "I think it’s the worst-kept secret in Boston politics," one city-council insider says. "I’ll bet you that right now there are 500 MAURA HENNIGAN FOR MAYOR signs in a garage somewhere in this city, just waiting to go up."

Yet some are unconvinced. For the better part of a year, Hennigan’s status as a presumptive mayoral candidate has been a huge public-relations boon. Every time something controversial happens in the city, a Hennigan quote is sure to pop up in the Boston Globe or the Boston Herald, and local media outlets of all stripes pay far more attention to her actions than they would if she were just another councilor looking to keep her job. There’s speculation that Hennigan will avoid officially declaring for mayor, milk the free PR for as long as possible, then pull back at the last minute and bid to keep her at-large seat. It wouldn’t be a bad strategy, particularly given her anemic campaign account. (As of December 15, Hennigan had just over $23,000 in the bank; by way of comparison, Flaherty had more than $291,000.)

Steve Murphy’s intentions are equally unclear. Like Hennigan, Murphy has excelled at the city level but fallen short in other venues. He’s been elected at-large four times, but has also lost races for state representative, state treasurer, and — most recently and most notably — Suffolk County sheriff. Murphy is an amiable sort, but the exigencies of politics seem to be fraying his nerves. In 2003, after barely fending off White, Murphy lashed out at her and most of his colleagues in a weird post-election rant; last month, he cried foul after a Globe reporter dared to link his vote against rent control to his support from the real-estate industry. In the wake of his crushing loss to Andrea Cabral in the Suffolk County sheriff’s primary (see "Winner’s Circle," News and Features, September 24), Murphy’s political stock is precariously low, and he’d probably spend the entire 2005 campaign as the incumbent with a target on his back. If another opportunity presents itself, Murphy may simply decide that he’s had enough of politics. Then again, he might conclude that the upcoming campaign offers a perfect opportunity for vindication.

If Murphy and Hennigan both leave, who will reap the benefits? Yoon, a 34-year-old Dorchester resident, is already enjoying enviable early buzz. This is partly due to his ethnicity: a Korean-American, Yoon would be Boston’s first Asian-American councilor. But even if Yoon receives the overwhelming support of Boston’s Asian communities, it may not be enough to propel him to victory. While the 2000 Census put Boston’s Asian population at just over 44,000, or 7.5 percent of the city’s total, many are not eligible voters, and those who are have no demonstrated track record of backing Asian candidates — perhaps because there haven’t been any to back. Remember, though, that in Arroyo’s 2003 campaign, support from the black community was at least as important as support from Latinos. Yoon may benefit from a similar dynamic. He was a founding member of the New Majority, a political coalition formed in response to Boston’s designation as a "majority-minority" city (in which nonwhites outnumber whites) and predicated on the notion that blacks, Asians, and Latinos must collaborate to build their political and economic power. Before he decided to run, Yoon sought the advice of African-American political icon Mel King, Councilors Charles Yancey and Chuck Turner (who are also black), and Arroyo. Yoon has picked a fortuitous time to run: following Arroyo’s 2003 win and Cabral’s victory last year, the notion that voters of color are flexing their political muscle has become a kind of new orthodoxy. Of all the at-large challengers, Yoon looks to be most in step with the political Zeitgeist.