E-Mail This Article to a Friend Searching for the Democratic Moses (continued)

If orthodox liberals are spooked by the prospect of Roemer’s leading the DNC, they might seek solace in the candidacy of Howard Dean. Dean was never as liberal as many of his supporters believed; as governor of Vermont, he was a committed centrist. But his steadfast opposition to the Iraq war — especially in contrast with John Kerry’s agonizingly nuanced position on the issue — served as his campaign’s ideological fuel and earned him many committed supporters among the party’s die-hard left. Even after Dean’s infamous meltdown in Iowa, many Democrats continue to believe his meteoric rise offers valuable lessons on how the party can reinvigorate itself — and that Dean, as DNC chair, could put those lessons to good use. "There are people who argue that the election was very close — that if 60,000 votes had gone the other way in Ohio, we would have won," says Steve Grossman, the former DNC chair from Massachusetts who was national co-chair of Dean’s 2004 campaign. "I don’t think that’s what happened; I think we lost badly. And I think the reason we lost badly is that the issues Karl Rove talked about are issues his base cares passionately about, whereas the potential new stakeholders in the Democratic Party didn’t hear from us the same sense of urgency about issues that affect their lives and warrant them coming out to vote. No one in the Democratic Party has shown he can motivate those potential stakeholders more than Howard Dean has."

Die-hard Deaniacs should temper their enthusiasm, however. Dean may have reinvented himself as a liberal outsider during the recent presidential campaign, but as he lobbies for support among DNC members, he’s playing the ultimate insider’s game — which means, among other things, laboring to re-establish his centrist credentials. Take his comments, made during a recent appearance on NBC’s Meet the Press, on the abortion issue: "I have long believed that we ought to make a home for pro-life Democrats," Dean said. "The Democrats that have stuck with us who are pro-life, through their long period of conviction, are the kind of pro-life people that we ought to have deep respect for." In other words, Dean — if he takes over as the DNC chair next month — may not be the same guy with whom passionate lefties fell in love two years ago.

There are Democratic insiders who regard Roemer and Dean as the two front-runners. "I can tell you, people in Washington, DC, think it’s either Roemer or Dean," says one DNC member. But Roemer’s views on abortion make him anathema to some; others — even if they find Dean a compelling possibility — can’t help viewing the former Vermont governor with skepticism. Johnston, for example, says he’d want Dean to formally rule out a 2008 presidential run before giving him his vote. And Kozikowski claims Dean’s post-Iowa flameout still makes her nervous. "I really love Howard Dean, and I think he has a great message," she says. "My problem is, that message was drowned out by his public image. I asked him directly, ‘How do you account for allowing that image to be created?’ He said, ‘Oh, the press did it, my opponents did it.’ But he has to take responsibility for allowing that image to take hold — and he has to take responsibility for making sure that image is mitigated or repaired in order to lead the party."

IF NOT ROEMER or Dean, who? At present, there are five other candidates. Texan Martin Frost lacks charisma, but has an excellent résumé: as head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in the mid 1990s, he helped roll back Republican gains in Congress. Wellington Webb, a former mayor of Denver, has a reputation as smart and funny; an African-American, he could also help consolidate the party’s increasingly tenuous hold on the loyalty of the black electorate. The trouble here is that DNC members may balk at ceding control to someone who made his name on the municipal level. Simon Rosenberg, who runs the centrist New Democratic Network, is considered an organizational wizard. But his Eastern roots could diminish his allure among Democrats looking to broaden the party’s appeal, even as progressives balk at his moderate (or, to quote an earlier incarnation of Howard Dean, "Republican Lite") political leanings. David Leland, a former chairman of the Ohio Democratic Party, is an obscure figure whose biggest asset is that he’s from the Midwest. At present, that leaves Donnie Fowler, the son of former DNC chair Don Fowler, whose major claim to fame was managing retired General Wesley Clark’s train wreck of a presidential campaign.

One or more candidates could still jump into the race. As the Phoenix went to press — and just as Dean was about take the unsurprising step of making his candidacy official — CNN reported that Kate Michelman, the former head of NARAL Pro-Choice America, was considering adding her name to the mix.

It initially seemed that some of the obvious Democratic contenders for 2008 would throw their backing behind particular candidates. For example, Kerry reportedly urged both Tom Vilsack (the governor of Iowa) and Jeanne Shaheen (the former governor of New Hampshire) to go for the post. And Harold Ickes, Bill Clinton’s former deputy chief of staff, had considered a run. But all three decided to take a pass. As things stand now, neither Kerry nor the Clintons have an obvious horse in the race.

Consequently, the election for DNC chair won’t serve as an early referendum on Democratic front-runners for the next presidential election. It will, however, do something more profound: it will signal the prevailing sense, among Democratic insiders, of how the party should find its way out of the political wilderness. If the preoccupation with "values" — and a compulsion to tack right — carries the day, Roemer just might pull it off. If the desire to hone a cogent Democratic message is paramount, Dean should win. But if DNC members decide the party’s salvation lies in recapturing the organizational advantage it had back in the good old days — before Rove et al. gave the Republicans an advantage there, too — the smart money is on Frost. The Democrats have a disheartening amount of work to do. Next month, we’ll learn where they plan to start.

Adam Reilly can be reached at areilly[a]phx.com