E-Mail This Article to a Friend Grinding to a halt (continued)

The Reilly factor

When someone wins elected office in Massachusetts, he or she tends to keep it — for a long, long time. That’s why John Kerry’s presidential loss was doubly disappointing to Bay State Democrats. Bush’s win didn’t just bring four more years of far-right Republicanism; it also meant that a much-anticipated domino effect — which would have had congressmen like Barney Frank, Steve Lynch, Marty Meehan, and Ed Markey vying for Kerry’s Senate seat, and countless lower-level politicians trying to make the jump to Congress — never actually materialized.

Now, another presumed domino effect — this one linked to the 2006 governor’s race — has various local pols making (tentative) plans. With Attorney General Tom Reilly’s Democratic candidacy seemingly all but certain, both Jarrett Barrios, the voluble state senator from the Middlesex, Suffolk, and Essex District, and Middlesex district attorney Martha Coakley have emerged as possible replacements. Reilly is the early Democratic frontrunner, so the jockeying to replace him is hardly premature: once he commits to seeking the nomination, his job will be up for grabs, and anyone who wants it will have to scramble to mount a credible statewide campaign. (According to one Democratic insider, Coakley is on the verge of committing to a run; with about $250,000 in the bank, Barrios can afford to keep his options open a bit longer.)

The anticipatory jockeying hasn’t stopped there. More recently, Coakley’s would-be successors have started working to drum up interest in their hypothetical candidacies. Mike Festa, the Democratic state representative from Melrose, is one of the aspirants for the Middlesex DA’s job (assuming that it’s available, of course). "I’m beginning to organize political support, and I’m gearing up for the campaign’s financial component, because it’ll be daunting," Festa says. "I am very, very serious about this. I anticipate that I will be running."

If so, he’ll face stiff competition. Peter Koutoujian, the state representative from the 10th Middlesex District and House chair of the powerful Public Health Committee, also has his eyes on Coakley’s job. A former assistant DA, Koutoujian already has a war chest of over $200,000 and would benefit from the support of the local Armenian-American community in a countywide campaign. Gerry Leone, Coakley’s former deputy and now an assistant US attorney, is also in the mix; if he runs, Leone will almost certainly portray himself as a professional prosecutor taking on two Beacon Hill insiders.

In fairness to Coakley’s would-be successors, it makes sense for her to spring into action now. Middlesex County covers a larger geographical area than a Massachusetts congressional district; nabbing the DA’s job will take a strong campaign organization and, in all likelihood, close to a million dollars. Still, it bears noting that this campaign might not happen. Tom Reilly may be the unofficial frontrunner, but his position is still precarious. If another big-name Democrat decides to jump in the race — e.g., if Joe Kennedy or Mike Capuano rethinks his decision not to run — Reilly may decide to content himself with another few years at Ashburton Place. If this happens, Coakley won’t be going anywhere soon.

Waiting for Deval Patrick

By now, Deval Patrick — Bill Clinton’s former assistant attorney general for civil rights, and a probable challenger to Reilly for the Democratic gubernatorial nomination — has done everything but make his candidacy official. On Monday, Patrick hit a high-powered fundraiser at the downtown law firm of Goulston & Storrs, then spoke at the annual Rosoff Awards luncheon at the Fairmont Copley Plaza. True to the awards’ theme of promoting diversity in Boston advertising and business, Patrick’s speech focused on the advantages of a diverse workplace. But it also included multiple digressions on what will probably become favorite Patrick campaign themes, including the meaning of citizenship and the vicissitudes of globalization.

Given the wonky subject matter, it’s no surprise that watching Patrick speak — and watching the crowd react to him — was a bit like observing a deep-thinking college professor in an overenrolled lecture class. Most members of the audience sat rapt, apparently captivated by Patrick’s intellect and refusal to give a trite, prepackaged talk. But a few looked bored or distracted, or raised their eyebrows skeptically at Patrick’s lofty rhetoric.

Afterward, Patrick spent about 10 minutes talking with journalists. His comments can be summarized as follows: I am really, really close to running. But I’m not ready to commit just yet! As Patrick explained it, he doesn’t want to formalize his candidacy before he’s built a solid campaign organization capable of putting him in the State House’s corner office. This seems odd — wouldn’t a formal announcement be a catalyst for such an organization? — but it’ll have to do for now. No word, either, on when an official announcement will come. Previously, Patrick had said he’d make his intentions known in March; on Monday, this had changed to (to paraphrase again): I’ll tell you really, really soon.

At this point, though, it’s probably time to stop calling Patrick a hypothetical candidate. He’s identified his campaign themes. He’s hired a spokesman, Khalil Byrd. (Larry Carpman, a former John Kerry aide now working with Patrick, introduced Byrd as "the man who’ll be Patrick’s spokesman if he decides to run," but you get the idea.) He uses the present or future tense when discussing his candidacy, and avoids conditional constructions. Patrick and other members of his camp are even getting e-mail at their own campaign-ready domain name — devalpatrick.com, natch.

In other words, it’s all over but the declaring.

Adam Reilly can be reached at areilly[a]phx.com