E-Mail This Article to a Friend Is it Menino forever?, continued
	Related Links Many of the top contenders to succeed Mayor Tom Menino in 2009 — or 2013, or 2017, or whenever — have personal campaign Web sites; the others, for the most part, have official government sites. Here they are: Mayor Menino Tom Menino’s site from the recent mayoral campaign Michael Flaherty The at-large councilor and city-council president’s campaign site State representative Marie St. Fleur’s official Web site. John Tobin The District Six city councilor’s campaign site. Charlotte Golar Richie Now-defunct site from Charlotte Golar Richie’s days in the Massachusetts House. Felix Arroyo Campaign site for the at-large councilor. Congressman Steve Lynch’s Web site. Biography of Boston Foundation head Paul Grogan. State representative Marty Walsh’s official site. Sam Yoon The newly elected at-large councilor’s campaign site. Liz Malia The state representative’s campaign site. Rob Consalvo Campaign site for the councilor known, occasionally, as Tom Menino’s Mini-Me.

CHARLOTTE GOLAR RICHIE

Odds: 4-1.

Charlotte who? Good question — and therein lies the problem. Seven years ago, Golar Richie had as much potential as any young politician in Boston, with a strong résumé (state representative, member of House leadership) and smarts and charisma to spare. Along came Menino, who — whether he was impressed by Golar Richie’s abilities, eager to co-opt a potential rival, or both — tapped her as Boston’s housing secretary. The job brought major responsibilities and a hefty pay raise; it also effectively removed Golar Richie from the political conversation. She could change this by seeking an at-large council spot in 2007, or just by using her current position for maximum public effect over the next four years — although Menino, with his credit-me-for-everything-good-in-Boston approach to governing, might frown on the latter approach. Another wrinkle: Golar Richie and Marie St. Fleur are close friends, and it’s unlikely the two would run simultaneously.

FELIX ARROYO

Odds: 5-1.

Voters like Arroyo as a legislator, but would they trust him as Boston’s chief executive? If the at-large councilor had topped Michael Flaherty on November 8 (see above), his odds would be a lot better. Arroyo’s pluses are clear: he’s an iconic figure with a charming manner and a strong following among non-white voters, and progressives of all races and ethnicities. So are his minuses: he’s prone to flights of rhetorical fancy, his strong accent frequently makes his words difficult to understand (a native of Puerto Rico, Arroyo moved to Boston three decades ago), and he’ll be 61 years old in 2009. His family and fans obviously see him as mayoral material. But Arroyo may well be content to remain the council’s progressive eminence grise.

STEVE LYNCH

Odds: 5-1.

Lynch went to Washington in 2001 to legislate, not to bide time as a junior congressman from the minority party. If George Bush’s dwindling credibility leads to big Democratic gains in next year’s congressional elections, cross Lynch off the list. But if the GOP retains control of the Senate and House, expect Lynch to give the mayor’s race a very close look. His Capitol Hill experience would be a major asset, as would his staunch union support (Lynch was once an ironworker) and established base in South Boston and Dorchester. But Lynch, as with Tobin, would have trouble situating himself in the overused but unavoidable New Boston narrative.

PAUL GROGAN

Odds: 6-1.

Grogan is everything Menino isn’t: a charismatic, articulate leader with a penchant for vision. And Menino is everything Grogan isn’t: a tested politician with a proven ability to win elections. As head of the Boston Foundation, Grogan — who served in the administration of former (charismatic, articulate, visionary) mayor Kevin White — has served as a kind of oracle, thinking big thoughts about big problems and offering pointers (sometimes welcome, sometimes not) to City Hall and Beacon Hill. After 16 years of Menino, Grogan could be just the kind of leader city voters crave. But while his act would play well among Boston’s business elite, would the broader electorate find it compelling? And who, exactly, would make up Grogan’s base? Come to think of it, does the average voter even know who Grogan is? If he doesn’t run, expect someone else — perhaps former lieutenant-governor candidate Chris Gabrielli — to surface as the preferred candidate of Boston’s business community.

MARTY WALSH

Odds: 6-1.

Walsh wants to be something more than a state rep from Dorchester. But he keeps getting cold feet. Two years ago, he reportedly mulled an at-large council run; he also eyed the state-senate seat now held by Jack Hart, but ended up taking a pass. A chance at the mayor’s job would force Walsh’s hand. Like Lynch, he’d have the strong support of organized labor, which could be invaluable in a crowded field. Unlike Lynch, his ambition easily exceeds his name recognition and public profile. But back in 1993, Tom Menino was a fairly obscure figure himself.

SAM YOON

Odds: 8-1.

Yes, he just won his first election. And yes, he still hasn’t done anything as a city councilor. But Yoon, who’ll become Boston’s first Asian-American elected official after he’s sworn in at Faneuil Hall next month, is already the Next Big Thing in city politics. Will Yoon get swallowed up by "Team Unity"? Will he be bored silly by the mundane realities of city-council service? Can you run for mayor after only two terms — especially when you’ve only lived in Boston since 2003? (Yoon used to call Arlington home.) All reasonable questions. Still, the fact remains that Yoon has the biggest potential base and loudest current buzz of any possible candidate.

LIZ MALIA

Odds: 9-1.

Malia is the anti-Flaherty — no one actually knows if she’d want to be mayor. But several smart observers of city politics think she’d be an especially intriguing candidate. As a lesbian, Malia could expect money and votes from Boston’s gay citizenry, a group whose political acumen and engagement gives it outsize influence. And as a resident of Jamaica Plain, she’d immediately be a progressive favorite. Her lack of a citywide base would be a problem. But to use a metaphor that’s creaky from overuse, Malia could be a perfect bridge between Old and New Boston.

ROB CONSALVO

Odds: 9-1.

A longstanding rumor had Menino setting up Consalvo — who represents Menino’s old Hyde Park district on the city council — as president of that body, and then retiring from the mayor’s office early. Consalvo would then become acting mayor, just as Menino did when Ray Flynn left back in 1993. Just before this year’s election, though, Menino told the Herald this wouldn’t happen. But the mayor doesn’t always say what he means — just look at his pledge to serve only two terms if elected. Consalvo’s an affable guy and a hard worker, and his brother-in-law, Drew O’Brien, is a top political operative. But he’s got a relatively narrow base of support and, to put it delicately, an unprepossessing public persona. Of course, so did Tom Menino...

LARRY DICARA

Odds: 10-1.

DiCara would love to be mayor. But would he take the pay cut? DiCara was Boston City Council president at 28; at 34, he was a candidate for mayor. He’s still one of the most politically connected individuals in Boston — in fact, he’s been mentioned as a possible Boston Redevelopment Authority head. But now, at age 56, he’s comfortably ensconced as a partner at the downtown law firm of Nixon Peabody. As the father of triplets who’ll be going to college in about a decade, that’s probably where he’ll stay. Then again, if a wide-open race à la 1983 takes shape, DiCara might decide to make one more bid for the job he’s coveted for most of his adult life.

AND BEAR IN MIND

State senator Marian Walsh (could a pro-life, pro-gay Catholic woman win citywide?); Suffolk County clerk magistrate and former mayoral candidate John Nucci (see Larry DiCara, above); Suffolk County Sheriff Andrea Cabral (if she gets some thicker skin); former House Speaker Tom Finneran (chances are slim, but he’d be a hell of a candidate); State Representative Linda Dorcena Forry (charming, but needs seasoning); City Councilor Paul Scapicchio (who’s clearly up to something); City Councilor Mike Ross (another Young Turk who’s ready to move on); and failed city-council candidate John Connolly (who would have been on this list if he’d beaten Steve Murphy on November 8 — and who could be on it come 2007).

Adam Reilly can be reached at areilly[a]phx.com.