Some observers feel last week’s stories didn’t hurt that much. “Who cares?” asks Gary Dotterman, who served as a top aide to former city councilor David Scondras in the early 1990s; he saw him through a series of bizarre problems (including several rambling calls to 911 criticizing city officials, and a fight at his home with a homeless friend that resulted in a call to police) that contributed to his defeat in 1993. “They’ve had bigger criminals in office, including the one sitting in the White House.” But the situation looks dire to most analysts. “The combination of stories in both papers,” says McCormack, “is roughly the political equivalent of Hiroshima.” Says Berkovitz: “Stick a fork in her.”

It remains to be seen whether the scandals will force Davis-Mullen to drop out of the race. At this point, she vows they won’t: “I’m in this race to stay,” she insisted on Tuesday. Although Tyler says her situation heightens existing speculation that she might back out and try to run for her at-large seat, the bad press may have eroded her support for that office as well — especially with tough challengers like Councilor Maura Hennigan of Jamaica Plain, former Boston School Committee member Felix Arroyo, and newcomer Rob Consalvo of Hyde Park gunning for an at-large position.

“The problem is, with all this negative publicity, it’s tough to make a graceful exit from the mayor’s race,” says Nucci — so she might be forced to stay in. Those who know her best insist that she will. “Peggy’s too tough” to drop out, says Spencer. Brian Wallace even believes the revelations could make her fiercer. “She’s not going to retreat with her tail between her legs and run for council,” he says. “In some ways, this makes her more scary for the Menino people because she has nowhere to go. She’s going to do everything she can — she’s going to come out swinging more.”

TO MITIGATE the damage, Davis-Mullen first needs to assure voters that there are no more iniquities waiting to be discovered. “If she comes clean,” says Timilty, “then she’s got a chance to start over again. I don’t know how she levels with it — maybe a press conference where she answers every single question until the press doesn’t have any more.” Her public ordeals, if they drag on long enough, might eventually evoke sympathy from voters. “I think there could be a backlash if they push too hard,” says Spencer. “It got to a point where my liberal female friends started to defend Jane Swift because they got tired of hearing her beat up.” And just staying in the race could be enough if Menino becomes embroiled in a scandal or serious gaffe of his own. “She was always a long shot, counting on Menino to damage himself through thoughtless missteps, and he may yet do that,” says Elizabeth Sherman, a senior fellow at UMass Boston’s Center for Women in Politics and Public Policy. “And if so, she’s the only candidate left standing.”

But even if she stays in the race, in all likelihood she’s already out of contention. “How is she going to raise money?” asks McCormack. “No legitimate person [who is involved with Boston politics] is going to contribute to Peggy’s campaign.” Indeed, she was already without funds for TV ads or bulk mailings. “The only thing she has going for her is the free press, and if she loses credibility, she’s going to lose that,” says Timilty. In a way, she’s also been stripped of the gender card. “Something women candidates have going for them is people believe they’re more honest and competent,” says Democratic political consultant Michael Goldman. “If you don’t have those two things to sell, it’s very difficult to stay viable.” The timing also hurts — it’s right at the start of her campaign, with the election only six months away. “This is not a situation where voters have a lot of time to forget about these bumps,” says Nucci.

Davis-Mullen has been regarded as someone with a bright political future ever since she was elected to the Boston School Committee at 27 — and as a 41-year-old four-term council veteran, she had the stature and name recognition to reach for larger goals. But the way she handled last week’s revelations betrays a lack of basic political common sense. “Why would she announce [for mayor] knowing there was so much stuff on her?” asks Goldman. “Or did she not realize how opposition research went? It might have been a bizarre naďveté, not realizing it would be a brutal initiation rite.” He suggests she could have softened the blow by arranging a sympathetic profile in which she admitted her transgressions and expressed her regret. “Maybe she thought it wasn’t going to be so bad,” he says. “Welcome to the big leagues.”

She may also need to temper her indignation. Two weeks ago, she told the Herald that “the harassment, the threats” from the Menino camp were going to be “a daily thing,” and she blamed the mayor’s people for the report that she had not filed her 1998 and 1999 taxes. (The Menino campaign declined to comment.) Some observers feel her aggressive response will hurt her. “I think she’s trying to play the Hillary Clinton card: ‘I’m a victim,’” says Timilty. “And you can’t do that, not with these types of issues.” Indeed, then–lieutenant governor Jane Swift’s defiant reaction to her helicopter and babysitting scandals further marred her image. Davis-Mullen’s sloppy handling of her own problems may have damaged not just her chances this year, but her political future. The mayoral race was “maybe more to establish her name and set herself up for another elected position or a run for mayor four years from now,” says Tyler. “This might make even that difficult.”

But the overriding sentiment among Boston political observers is that Davis-Mullen’s flame-out is, more than anything, a loss to the city. McCormack says the mayor “is probably delighted” that Davis-Mullen’s chances are diminished. “But I think a mayoral race would have been good for him,” he says.

With developers salivating over the waterfront, the sledgehammer of MCAS ready to hit the schools, and rents heading for the stratosphere, Menino’s not the only one it would have been good for.

Dorie Clark can be reached at dclark[a]phx.com.