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Time will tell whether voters share Murphy’s dim view of Cabral’s personal political history. One Democratic consultant suggests the issue is a nonstarter. "Voters don’t care whether she was once a Republican or a Democrat — the question is, is she doing the job," he says. "People simply are no longer so connected to the party that they have to be Democrats for their whole lives. They themselves are conflicted; sometimes they vote Republican. They’re not going to hold that against her."

In fact, Murphy’s fixation on party loyalty could become a liability. In political circles, he was widely regarded as a supporter of the Republican Cellucci-Swift administration. Murphy calls this an "urban legend," and notes that he never joined the cadre of Democrats who publicly backed the incumbent Cellucci over Democrat Scott Harshbarger in 1998. But one Republican involved with the Cellucci campaign says Murphy provided subtle but meaningful assistance. "He was very helpful," the individual says. "Whether he officially endorsed Cellucci or not, the campaign at the time considered him as part of Democrats for Cellucci." If Murphy pushes his criticism of Cabral’s Democratic credentials, his own relationship with Cellucci may come under increased scrutiny.

Questioning the mechanics of Cabral’s appointment by Swift also puts Murphy on risky rhetorical terrain. At Doyle’s, Murphy offered this assessment of Swift’s motivations, tapping the table for emphasis: "She was hired on a political decision — the political decision by a Republican administration to go in another direction and to hire a minority female, period, for perception’s sake." The recollections of former Swift insiders suggest that being an African-American woman did, indeed, help Cabral become sheriff. But if Murphy drops too many references to Cabral’s race and gender into his interviews and stump speeches, he risks alienating a massive chunk of the Suffolk County electorate — especially with the campaign playing out against the backdrop of the race-based lawsuit that forced the recent redistricting of Boston’s state-representative districts.

Can Murphy tread delicately? After finishing fourth in the at-large council election last year and narrowly fending off first-time candidate Patricia White to keep his seat for a fourth consecutive term, Murphy, in an interview with the Boston Globe, panned White as well as several fellow councilors and said he had "a better record than anybody in this race." He has the backing of District Three councilor Maureen Feeney, but several other colleagues say they’re inclined to sit this race out. "He has asked me for my support, and I told him I had to stay neutral," one councilor said last week. "I just don’t feel I want to get in the middle of this." Councilor Chuck Turner, meanwhile, has come out for Cabral.

For her part, Cabral seems equally willing to use incendiary language. She greeted Murphy’s announcement — of which she had obtained an advance press release — with a lengthy point-by-point rebuttal defending her record as sheriff. In it, Cabral accused Murphy of engaging in "Jurassic politics" and challenged him to a series of debates. "Every statement he makes is a lie," she says of Murphy’s opening-day criticisms. "Most people, when they lie, try for some kind of cover, so if it’s pointed out they’re lying they can backtrack. I’m shocked at how reckless this is."

THERE’S NO consensus on how the Suffolk County sheriff’s race will unfold. Ten years ago, Cabral could have used her incumbency to cultivate the SCSD’s employees as an electoral and fundraising base. Today, thanks to the findings of the review commission that excoriated Rouse’s tenure as sheriff — and created Cabral’s mandate as a reformer — that advantage is greatly diminished. (The commission urged Rouse’s successor not to accept contributions from employees, and a recent fundraising solicitation by Cabral’s campaign that included the names of SCSD workers drew a quick warning from the Office of Campaign and Political Finance.)

Some political observers believe Murphy’s advantages — including high name recognition, fundraising prowess (in March, he outraised Cabral $42,809 to $10,005), and an established campaign apparatus beside which first-time candidate Cabral’s pales — make him almost a lock for the nomination. "Because he’s run citywide a bunch of times, he has the visibility, and if he has the visibility for a lower office, that often does the trick," says one Democratic insider.

Others disagree. An individual close to the Cabral camp predicts that a women-oriented fundraiser scheduled for late May will close the finance gap between the two campaigns. And according to Lou DiNatale of UMass Boston’s McCormack Institute of Public Affairs, the SCSD’s travails under Rouse could work to Cabral’s advantage. "The question is, is the sheriff’s race still a relatively low-visibility, insider’s race that has no interest to the general voter?" DiNatale asks. "Or has the sheriff’s job become more important? Are people more aware that they need a professional in there? I’d argue that if this turns on professionalism, Murphy’s in trouble; if it turns on race or who’s old and who’s new, then Cabral is. But if I were Cabral, I’d be happy with Felix Arroyo’s numbers in the last City Council election. I’d be thinking that there’s some base here." (Thanks to a late surge of support from progressives, blacks, and Latinos, Arroyo placed second in the at-large field during the November 2003 election.)

Many of Boston’s better-known political figures are already taking sides. Cabral touts endorsements from former mayoral candidate Mel King; State Representatives Gloria Fox, Shirley Owens-Hicks, Marie St. Fleur, Jeffrey Sanchez, and Elizabeth Malia; State Senators Dianne Wilkerson and Jarrett Barrios; City Councilor Chuck Turner; former Democratic National Committee head Steve Grossman; and Kennedy. Murphy won’t identify his elected supporters, but says he expects endorsements from "the majority of the local Democratic establishment." If he’s right, there’s a clear pattern: Cabral has the support of African-American and Latino legislators, while the reps and senators backing Murphy will be mostly or entirely white.

The contest’s outcome could hinge on a host of still-unanswered questions. Will the race’s latent racial overtones help Cabral or Murphy when voters go to the polls on September 14? Will Cabral’s history of outreach to Boston’s gay and lesbian community pay off at the polls? Will supporters of Patricia White, who takes Murphy’s council seat if he’s elected sheriff, turn out for Murphy in large numbers? (White says she’s remaining neutral in the race, and that both Murphy and Cabral employ former staffers of hers. George Regan — who served as press secretary for White’s father, four-term mayor Kevin White, and helped Patricia White fundraise and execute her campaign — calls Murphy a "class-A boob" and says he has no plans to assist him.)

Will Conley, the Suffolk DA, work behind the scenes to undermine Cabral, who left the DA’s office after Conley replaced Ralph Martin and whose appointment Conley opposed? (Dan Cence, Murphy’s campaign manager, ran Conley’s 2002 campaign; Cabral says she and Conley cleared the air in a conversation earlier this year and have a solid working relationship.) Will Cabral’s appeal as an articulate African-American woman prompt the state Democratic Party to deviate from its policy of non-intervention in primary elections? Might Menino — whose relationship with Cabral grew tense when she unsuccessfully pushed the city to cover the $5.2 million balance of the strip-search lawsuit debt — labor quietly for Murphy? If Republican hopeful Shawn Jenkins fails to obtain enough signatures to run, might Romney throw his behind-the-scenes support to Murphy as well? (Spokespersons for Menino, Romney, and the Massachusetts Democratic Party said they will not take sides in the primary.)

The landscape of the race will come into sharper focus as the September 14 primary approaches. But one thing is already obvious: this will not be a campaign in which the candidates speak respectfully of each other and frame their criticisms with polite disclaimers. This, it seems, will be a campaign between two individuals who genuinely dislike each other and are willing to share that dislike with the public. Sheriff’s races are often forgettable. This one won’t be.

Adam Reilly can be reached at areilly[a]phx.com