E-Mail This Article to a Friend Choose the Jews (continued)

OF COURSE, even the staunchest Kerry supporters — including Solomont — grant that Bush has been solidly pro-Israel. But, as they point out, Kerry himself has a strong pro-Israel record. So, that’s a wash, they say. "I don’t think that Israel will be the litmus test this year," says Nancy Kaufman, executive director of the Jewish Community Relations Council of Greater Boston.

That is the Kerry campaign’s hope: to neutralize Israel as an issue, so that Jewish voters can decide on social issues. On matters such as welfare, civil rights, gun control, reproductive rights, and health-care availability, polls show they continue to lean heavily leftward. Most Jews also disapprove of efforts to redefine church/state separation, seen particularly in Bush’s faith-based initiatives and promotion of voucher programs that include religious schools. "On all the other issues [besides Israel], the Jews are on the side of the Democrats," Frank says.

In fact, some think Bush is vulnerable even on the Middle East, once the discussion moves beyond support for Israel. Energy conservation is a crucial issue, says Lowenthal, because "the more energy we save domestically, the less reliant we will be on Arab countries for oil." Bush’s "deep ties to Saudi Arabia" are also a negative to Jews, says David Harris, deputy executive director of the NJDC. "John Kerry is willing to crack down on Saudi Arabia" for aiding terrorists, Harris says, "and not treat that country with kid gloves."

Then there’s the Iraq war, which many Jews initially supported. However, the Bush administration has mismanaged the conflict in ways that are seen as costly to Israel’s interests, says Frank. That includes the US’s increasing international isolation, and the anti-American — and anti-Israel — backlash that the Iraq invasion has incurred in the Arab world. "Kerry is a more effective friend of Israel," Frank says. "Incompetence does not serve the Jewish interest."

In addition, the most prominent Jewish members of the Bush administration are, as Lowenthal puts it, "problematic." They have included war hawks like former Defense Policy Board chair Richard Perle, Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, and National Security Council staffer Elliott Abrams. The Democratic Party, meanwhile, has no polarizing figure for Jews — unlike in the 1980s, when the Reverend Jesse Jackson turned off many with his "Hymietown" remark and his association with the Nation of Islam’s Louis Farrakhan. (Although Jackson remains a prominent Democrat, his importance has receded and he no longer attracts much controversy.) And, Kaufman points out, resentment still lingers over the 2000 election, in which many Florida Jews saw their votes invalidated in the infamous "butterfly ballot" fiasco.

Case closed for Kerry? Hardly, say Republicans. "The Kerry-Edwards ticket, they totally ignore, or at the very least has flip-flopped on the Middle East issues," says the RNC’s Wall. She includes in this charge Kerry’s supposed wavering on the Iraq war. Wall also calls John Edwards a foreign-policy lightweight with little grasp of the Israeli-Palestinian situation. The Bush campaign has made hay of Kerry’s primary-campaign comments expressing displeasure with the Israeli security fence’s original proposed path through West Bank territory. Also, in his 1997 book The New War: The Web of Crime That Threatens America’s Security, Kerry took the controversial step of writing that Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat had transformed himself from an outlaw to a statesman.

On the domestic front, despite what liberal Jews say, there is a sizable coterie of American Jews — particularly the Orthodox — who embrace Bush’s faith-based initiatives. And, as Wall points out, plenty of American Jews have benefited from Bush’s tax cuts.

EVENTS IN the Middle East have a way of making political waves in the US. In the coming months, any number of things could happen in Israel that might affect the way American Jews view the presidential contest. If Sharon succeeds in his plans for an Israeli withdrawal from the Gaza Strip, for example, Bush will surely reap some credit. "If Bush were able, by a great deal of persuasion, to bring together some sort of agreement, perhaps for an orderly transition in Gaza, that might help" attract Jewish votes, says Frank. Then there’s the current chaos in the Palestinian leadership; how Bush and Kerry react to it could also prove important. The same applies if a particularly bad terrorist attack occurs inside Israel.

The candidates also may have to face shifts in Israeli politics. "There might be a new [Israeli] coalition government, which would change the dynamics," says Jennifer Laszlo Mizrahi, president of the Israel Project, in Washington, DC. "Some Americans are more comfortable with a coalition government than with a Sharon government." But that might put Bush in a difficult spot, given his support for Sharon. And, of course, the Iraq situation remains volatile, with consequences for Israel. All of which means that events beyond the campaigns’ control could affect their standing among Jewish voters far more than anything they can do themselves.

What they can do, however, is bring out supporters to make the case to Jewish groups, as the Democrats did on Sunday. The Republicans will get their chance at a similar AIPAC event in New York in a few weeks. The NJDC, meanwhile, is hosting a series of strategy and public-relations events during the Democratic Convention. The one thing nobody seems to be doing is taking the Jewish vote for granted in 2004.

David S. Bernstein can be reached at dbernstein[a]phx.com