E-Mail This Article to a Friend Road to nowhere (continued)

Jim Marzilli, a state representative from Arlington, also sees this fall’s legislative elections hurting Romney and the Republicans. For example, he predicts voters will link the governor to the aggressive direct-mail spots the Mass GOP is rolling out for the campaign home stretch. Consider a recent mailing targeting Karen Spilka, a Democratic state representative who’s seeking the Senate seat currently held by retiring Democrat David Magnani. In 2003, Spilka voted against an amendment that would have allowed police to convey criminal-background-check information to schools. Instead, she supported quicker turnaround by the state’s Criminal History Systems Board. A recent mailing from the Massachusetts Republican Party accuses Spilka of voting "to protect the identities of sexual predators over the safety of our children," and pictures an angelic little boy with a single tear rolling down his face; behind him, two beefy hands grasp the bars of a prison cell. "The governor smiles, he acts like a nice guy," Marzilli says. "But if you hire arm-breakers and goons to be your enforcers, that doesn’t make you a nice guy."

Marzilli also argues, like Goldman, that Romney erred by running a broad and shallow legislative slate rather than focusing on a few strong candidates. By choosing numbers over quality, Marzilli asserts, the governor gave Democrats a prime opportunity to hammer his record. "My guy [Marzilli’s Republican opponent, Eric Steinhilber] says he supports Romney’s agenda," Marzilli says. "So it’s my responsibility to talk to voters about what Romney’s agenda is, and about what the Arlington and Medford agenda is — stopping cuts in aid for education and the Prescription Advantage pharmacy program, getting Republicans and Democrats to unanimously reject Romney’s mean-spirited veto of a minor pay raise for the lowest-paid government workers. I’ve just had two free weeks of unedited commentary in the Arlington Advocate. If Romney hadn’t gotten someone to run against me, that wouldn’t have been in the paper. That cannot help Romney’s standing in our communities."

IT’S UNDERSTANDABLE that Democrats relish the idea of Romney suffering for his hubris. But the worst-case scenarios they envision may not come to pass. If the Republican slate disappoints on November 2, Bay State Democrats will have yet another piece of anti-Romney ammunition for the 2006 gubernatorial campaign. Of course, Romney may not seek re-election. The governor’s limp protestations aside, most observers assume he’s girding for a 2008 presidential run. While Romney could bolster his presidential credentials by winning a second term, he could also do so by taking a post in a revamped Bush cabinet — or, if Kerry wins, by gunning for his vacant Senate seat. To paraphrase Richard Nixon, two years from now, local Democrats might not have Mitt Romney to kick around anymore.

If Romney does make a presidential run, moreover, a nationwide Republican audience probably won’t care how few legislative seats he added to the Massachusetts Republican column four years earlier. "If Romney is speaking to a group of Republican voters in Iowa, he’ll say, ‘I was elected in a state with 29 Republicans out of 200 members in the legislature, and not one Republican congressman; I held the line on spending; I held the line on taxes; and for the first time, I fielded Republican candidates in races that have never seen a Republican run,’" says one Democratic consultant. "I don’t think anybody in Des Moines is going to say, ‘Yes, but Mr. Romney, how many got elected?’ This is a partisan audience, and they’re going to know that this is Massachusetts. They’ll be amazed that he did that." Or, as one Republican consultant puts it, "Nationally, no one expects Mitt Romney to succeed in Ted Kennedy’s Massachusetts."

Remember, too, that Romney’s Recruits haven’t actually failed yet. As both Republicans and Democrats point out, with 125 contested races, there’s likely to be a surprise or two on Election Day. A handful of Democratic incumbents — including State Senators Susan Fargo, Rob O’Leary, and Therese Murray, Senate chair of the Ways and Means Committee — are locked in difficult races with tough, well-financed Republican challengers. The GOP could also triumph in the Second Worcester and Second Middlesex and Norfolk Districts, both of which have Democratic incumbents who are retiring this year. On the other hand, a few Democratic challengers have decent shots at knocking off Republican incumbents. Angus McQuilken, who lost a high-profile Senate special election to Scott Brown this spring, is taking Brown on again. Last time around, Brown had strong support from Romney and the entire Massachusetts Republican Party apparatus, who framed the contest as a political bellwether; this time, Brown is just another candidate. In the Middlesex and Essex District, meanwhile, incumbent Republican senator Richard Tisei has a daunting opponent in first-timer Katherine Clark, who’s widely viewed as a rising Democratic star and has the backing of Democratic queen-maker Barbara Lee. (Lee is working on Karen Spilka’s behalf as well.)

Assuming Mitt’s minions fare poorly next month — and it seems they will — Democrats would do well to temper their glee. The willingness of Democrats to adopt Romney’s "reform" rhetoric is a testament to the governor’s ability to shape the terms of the debate on Beacon Hill. And for the first time since 1990, when Bill Weld swept 14 new Republican legislators (eight in the Senate, six in the House) into office with him, a number of Democratic incumbents have been forced to break a sweat while seeking re-election. Furthermore, in the next legislative session, Democrats who were attacked for specific votes during the current campaign may tread more delicately — which could lead, in turn, to still-unanticipated victories for Romney. Come 2006, whether Romney runs or not, the Republicans will have a ready-made stable of candidates with name recognition and firsthand campaign experience. And they’ll have a tested campaign theme — Boston against the suburbs — which, given Massachusetts’s changing demographics, could prove as effective as it is cynical. Romney’s eagerness may have gotten the best of him this year. But he could still have the last laugh.

Adam Reilly can be reached at areilly[a]phx.com