E-Mail This Article to a Friend The Gaza pullout, continued

The PA continues to seek political compromise with Hamas. At this spring’s Cairo meeting, for example, Hamas agreed to a Hudna or cease-fire with the Israelis of indefinite duration. But to obtain the accord, Abu Mazen pledged to maintain the right of return for Palestinian refugees, a position which, unless changed, will doom future talks, just as Yasser Arafat’s insistence on the right doomed the 2000 effort.

Abu Mazen also called for the subordination of all militias to the central Palestinian Authority, but showed no intention of enforcing the plea when Hamas and other factional militias declined the invitation.

Most analysts suggest Hamas enjoys the support of about 35 percent of the Palestinian population in Gaza, less on the West Bank. They will run in legislative council elections scheduled for January 25. They are in no haste to attack Israel, fearing both brutal retaliation and the loss of public support. But one should take them at their word that their long-term strategy is to use military means to eradicate the Jewish state.

Over the weeks, I watched sympathy mount for the settlers. The Gush Katif residents of Gaza were not the crazies of Hebron or the illegal West Bank outposts whose gun-toting Wild West demeanor and religious fanaticism often embarrass Israelis, but dedicated, relatively simple folks whose lure had been the government promise of a better life and whose own commitment could be measured in the deaths of friends and loved ones. Now they would be moved, forcibly if necessary, their homes — too small for huge Arab families — pulverized, their synagogues destroyed, their dead to be dug up and buried again once the families resettle.

FACING THE MUSIC

Behind the scenes mainstream Palestinian leaders had mixed feelings about the unilateral Israeli move. Yes, it was good to see them go, but both Gaza and the West Bank were dependent on a relaxation of the counter-terrorism regime that had been dominating their lives. Without such relaxation, Gaza could become a hopeless prison, incapable of beginning the long march to economic and political health, even with generous outside help and investment. One Palestinian economist told us that some 400,000 Gaza residents — presumably refugees — would eventually have to move to the West Bank for the Gaza economy to gain some breathing space.

The PA leadership, driven by even more bombastic Hamas rhetoric, sought to present the withdrawal as a precedent for future victories at the negotiating table or elsewhere. In Gaza, Abu Mazen told a screaming outdoor rally, "Today we are celebrating the liberation of Gaza and the northern West Bank; tomorrow we will celebrate the liberation of Jerusalem."

Ariel Sharon also spoke to his countrymen on the eve of withdrawal. In a sober studio speech, he acknowledged his own history as one who "had believed and hoped we could forever hold onto Netzarim and Kfar Darom. But the changing reality in the country, in the region, in the world, required of me a reassessment and a change of positions." No longer could Israel be the master of more than a million refugee-camp residents who "live in poverty and despair, in hotbeds of rising hatred with no hope on the horizon."

To prevent the words from becoming the opening lyrics to his own swan song, Sharon will either have to survive a challenge to his leadership by the hard-line Binyamin Netanyahu, who left the cabinet just days before the pullout, or cobble together a new coalition adding up to 61 Knesset seats. He has already promised to stop further withdrawals, even to expand existing settlements. Exhausted by the medicine of unilateral withdrawal, Israelis now wait to be summoned by the quartet for a high-stakes game of roadmap, a game many saw initially as the disease.

But my sense is that Palestinian problems are even more formidable. Without the power to control terrorism or the moral authority to put a breakthrough deal on the table, Abu Mazen and his negotiating team may well have to accept the sort of provisional arrangements that will only compound their sense of historic injustice.

Bob Zelnick is chair of the journalism department at Boston University and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution. He served as the ABC News correspondent in Israel from 1984-86.