To my loyal readers: I fully agree that a publication’s baseball preview should be completed and published before the regular season actually starts. Logistical complications have delayed the process, and though many pro teams have already played at least three or four games this past week, I will assume for these purposes that everybody’s 0-0, and that the first hardball has yet to be hurled. And in spite of the fact that we know what kind of starts many teams have launched, I will pretend that I didn’t see them, or, in the words of California Superior Court judge Lance Ito, "The jury is instructed to ignore the testimony that has been heretofore presented, and proceed as if it was never exhibited."

A month back, we published a column noting that of the 30 major-league baseball teams, 14 teams had pretty much been eliminated before the warbling of the first "Star-Spangled Banner" in Anaheim on March 30. You can find that column here. We also outlined the possibilities inherent in the upcoming New York Yankees’ season last week, and you can find that forecast here. That leaves us six divisions, and 15 teams left to deconstruct. Today, the American League:

• AL East: the Yankees look to be the class of the division, as they have been since 1997. As mentioned last week, the pinstripers have deepened their roster and upgraded as well, but their pitching staff is another year closer to receiving Modern Maturity magazine on a monthly basis, and their disabled list will do much to determine their fortunes this season. The Red Sox have no doubt targeted their weaknesses from last season (bullpen, first base), but one of the key things to watch with the 2003 Sox is their killer instinct. In each of the last two years, they got off to pretty good starts but fell into dreadful slumps, with lackadaisical and inconsistent play dooming their chances late in the season. What they have going for them is a nice one-two-three punch in the starting rotation (Pedro Martinez, Tim Wakefield, and Derek Lowe, who combined for 52 of the team’s 93 wins last year), the possibility of a solid number-four guy (lefty Casey Fossum), and an offense that should generate plenty of runs all summer long. When Jason Varitek — the Sox’ switch-hitting catcher who is batting .265 for his career and hit nearly .300 two years ago — is batting ninth in the order, you know you’ve got a potent collection of sluggers. Eventually, the bullpen situation will sort itself out and one "closer" will emerge, but realistically the Sox have a much-improved staff waiting to put the finishing touches on Boston victories. Furthermore, the top three starters should all be able to go into the seventh inning on a regular basis, thus keeping the set-up guys fresh. Lowe’s ability to replicate his 21-win season last year will be a vital factor in the Red Sox’ ability to reach the playoffs, as will the blossoming of the young Fossum. Toronto should do better this season; it expects to improve on its 78-84 record (25 and a half games back) from last season, and its young corps of hitters is bound to make an impression, both with their power and their aggressiveness. The Jays’ main problem, though, is their lack of pitching depth, and while their ace, Roy Halladay, is a proven commodity, the rest of their starting rotation is not, as evidenced by their third starter, former Devil Ray Tanyon Sturtze, who is coming off a 4-18 season in Tampa. The Orioles and Devil Rays round out the division, and, luckily for New York and Boston, they each get to play these two Triple-A clubs 19 times this season.

• AL Central: another division with just two teams really expected to contend for any kind of post-season opportunity. The Twins no longer have the cloud of contraction hanging over their heads, and their 2002 division crown will be tough to dislodge by their partners in the AL Central. Minnesota has a good young offense, and tightfisted owner Carl Pohlad finally has loosened the purse strings to allow the Twins’ roster to cross the $55 million threshold. The loss of starter Eric Milton for at least four months to knee surgery substantially reduces the strength of the Twins’ rotation (though the signing of 38-year-old free-agent lefty Kenny Rogers may offset that void), but what Minnesota lacks in big-name star power it more than makes up for in offensive and defensive might. The White Sox’ acquisition of Bartolo Colon makes them a force in the division, but beyond him and last year’s 19-game winner, Mark Buehrle, the ChiSox don’t figure to overtake the Twins, nor to have the horses for the wild card. They’ve got one of the AL’s top closers in Billy Koch, but their defense and 3-4-5 starters could ultimately bring them back to the pack. The overmatched Indians, Royals, and Tigers will provide the bulk of the wins for the Twins and White Sox as they battle it out all summer long.

• AL West: there’s another dandy pennant race shaping up in the West this season, with three teams coming off at least 93-win seasons, including the squad that ultimately won it all, the Anaheim Angels. I think that Oakland, with its unmatched 1-2-3 rotation of Barry Zito, Tim Hudson, and Mark Mulder, will be the team that again emerges atop baseball’s most competitive division. If any one of those guys goes down, however, the whole West race will be up for grabs (the same could happen in the East if the Yankees lose one of their aces). Oakland is going with a new manager, former Pawtucket skipper Ken Macha, and if reports are true, he is destined to be one of the game’s future stars as he attempts to lead this multitalented and deep squad to the next level. Anaheim, like this past year’s New England Patriots, will be looking to shake the label that it was a one-year wonder, even though the Angels are returning pretty much the same team as the one that knocked off San Francisco in seven games last October. Many feel they snuck up on people last year, but this year they won’t be under anyone’s radar. The combination of that inherent pressure to repeat, along with a difficult schedule within the division, may derail their efforts to prove that 2002 wasn’t a fluke. Nonetheless, right now they are the favorite to battle the Red Sox for the wild card. Seattle lost its fiery manager, Lou Piniella, to Tampa Bay, and the age of many on its roster may play a factor for the team this season. Six of the Mariners’ pitchers will turn 34 or older this season, and number-two starter Jamie Moyer and DH Edgar Martinez each turned 40 over the winter. All told, 17 members of the 25-man roster are 30 or older, and their foremost superstar, Ichiro Suzuki, will hit the big three-oh in October. Finally, Texas has supposedly improved from the team that finished 31 games behind the A’s last season, but this is also an aging squad, and this year’s starting rotation combined for only 40 wins last season. Alex Rodriguez remains the sole superstar on this team, and he will have to comfort himself with the $23 million he will earn this year.

Recap: barring significant injuries to their pitching staffs, New York, Minnesota, and Oakland figure to capture their respective division titles. The Red Sox’ starting rotation and the fortunes of its bullpen, along with a team-wide sense of passion and desire, will determine whether they emerge as the wild-card entry in the American League. If Boston falters, it would appear that the Angels or White Sox could steal the playoff spot, although Toronto could surprise if its youth blossoms earlier than expected and its pitching staff can keep pace with the big guns of its divisional counterparts.

For Red Sox fans, it comes down to this: your team has improved itself at first base (Kevin Millar or David Ortiz) and at second (Todd Walker); 2001 AL batting champ Nomar Garciaparra should be back to almost full strength after spending last season recovering from his wrist injury; Shea Hillenbrand, an All-Star third baseman who needs to work on his patience on the plate, has had a tremendous spring and may spend some time at first base. And the outfield is certainly set, with Manny Ramirez back to defend his 2002 batting title, Johnny Damon aiming to rebound from a late-season slump to become a force out of the lead-off position, and Trot Nixon bulked up with 25 pounds of muscle and looking to finally secure the big numbers and the big-money contract he has long coveted.

What this team must avoid is the kind of halfhearted play that resulted in its scoring three first-inning runs on Opening Day against the majors’ worst team, only to score just one more run thereafter and ultimately give away five runs and the game in the bottom of the ninth. The Sox simply cannot score eight runs through six innings the next day, then not only surrender an 8-5 lead, but go nine scoreless innings thereafter against a collection of Tampa Bay nincompoops before finally surviving with a 16-inning, 9-8 victory.

But I wasn’t supposed to mention that, was I? I promise I’ll ignore that testimony for the balance of the proceedings.

FYI: a week away from Opening Day at Fenway, and it’s 34 degrees and sleeting in Boston.

Coming Monday: the National League preview.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com