E-Mail This Article to a Friend 2003 NFL preview: AFC BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

With the Bruins producing barely enough spark to light a fire in my daughter’s dollhouse fireplace, the Celtics still a month away from opening training camp, and the Revolution soccer team seemingly headed for oblivion following a near-championship 2002 season, New England sports fans will be torn this weekend between concentrating on the fate of their beloved Scarlet Hose and the unveiling of the 2003-’04 NFL season. Sox in the Bronx? Pats winging it in Buffalo? Make your choice.

In the meantime, on this day we’re here to talk about the gridiron season, with optimism again brewing for the contingent from Foxborough. Let’s see how they, along with the conferences' other 15 clubs, shape up.

AFC East: Without question, the toughest division in the AFC, if not the entire league. If not for Jets QB Chad Pennington going down with a broken wrist in the pre-season, the East would have been totally up for grabs. Now it’s seemingly down to a three-way horse race, and it’s nearly impossible to discern who among these stallions has the upper hoof. While Buffalo has made significant improvements to its woeful 2002 defense, I still have some questions about whether the Bills are ready to move to the next level. I think they’ll be good, and entertaining, but I still see them as only third-best in the division behind New England and Miami. It’ll be a close third, though, since both the Pats and the Fish have nagging needs that must be addressed, and we just won’t know about Drew Bledsoe and Co. until we see them play a few games. New England has done a fine job of revamping their aged defense, though I think high-priced Willie McGinest would have been a better choice to shuttle than defensive co-captain Lawyer Milloy, who’s now with Buffalo. Nonetheless, the Pats have to prove that they can stop the run, and behind Antowain Smith utilize it effectively in their own offense. Pats fans need not worry about Tom Brady, since the fourth-year stud appears sufficiently healed from the shoulder injury he suffered in the season-ender last January. Yet if injury-prone nose tackle Ted Washington is lost for any amount of time, teams will be able to run at will against the Patriots, and that shortcoming was what cost New England a playoff berth last season. Meanwhile, the Dolphins have nine former Pro Bowlers on defense and Ricky Williams carrying the ball, so that should be enough, right? Well, I still don’t see Miami reaching its first Super Bowl since 1983, particularly since it hits the winter homestretch this season with games at New England and Buffalo, sandwiching a home game against the Eagles. Miami is lacking something — perhaps a killer instinct — and they’ll be toast if QB Jay Fiedler, Williams, or key members of the D go down to injury. New York? Contending in the AFC East — along with additional match-ups against the NFC East teams and conference foes Oakland, Tennessee, and Pittsburgh — is tough enough when you’re healthy and solid; when your team has been decimated by free agency and your fledgling quarterback is gone for a couple of months, that is the time to look to next year already.

Prediction: New England 10-6, Miami 10-6, Buffalo 9-7, New York 4-12.

AFC North: Baltimore’s defense, with a rejuvenated and pent-up Ray Lewis back in the middle, will be a force to be reckoned with. Sure, the offense still doesn’t conjure up sweat-inducing nightmares, but it didn’t three years ago either when the Ravens sneaked in and won a Super Bowl. If they can stay injury-free and get productive seasons from rookie QB Kyle Boller and RB Jamal Lewis, Baltimore should be in the thick of things from the get-go. Now that Pittsburgh has dispensed with Kordell Stewart (in favor of Tommy Maddox) and Jerome Bettis (on the bench in lieu of Amos Zereoue), the Steelers should fight it out all season long with the Ravens. Think the schedule-makers knew something when they pitted the two teams against each other in the regular-season prime-time finale in Baltimore? Division honors could come down to that. Cleveland is coming off a 9-7 playoff year last season, although their late-game collapse in the wild-card round against the Steelers was downright brutal. Many would say the Browns didn’t even deserve to be in the playoffs, since New England and Miami both stayed home after playing much tougher schedules, but that’s another story for another day. The Browns have a much more formidable ledger this season, and with a bubbling QB controversy and the loss of tackle Ross Verba to injury in the pre-season dominating its headlines, the city of Cleveland could be facing yet another addition to the metropolis’s lo-o-o-ng championship drought (48 years and counting). Cincinnati finally has a real coach in long-time NFL assistant Marvin Lewis, an upgraded defense, a solid running back in Corey Dillon, and #1 draft choice Carson Palmer waiting to take the QB reins, but they will still be overmatched in most contests — though improved.

Prediction: Baltimore 11-5, Pittsburgh 10-6, Cleveland 8-8, Cincinnati 5-11.

AFC South: I’ll say it up-front: I like Tennessee. I like them a lot, and figure that if they can avoid the injury bug — particularly to quarterback Steve McNair and running back Eddie George — they could be displaying those god-awful uniforms in the Super Bowl for the second time in five seasons. The Titans’ defense is mighty physical, and being entrenched in a mediocre division like this will certainly help in their efforts to return to the AFC Championship game for the second straight season. Yep, I like ’em. Any team coached by Tony Dungy cannot be counted out, and Indianapolis should be in the hunt again this season. However, it may take a while for the team to get over its 41-0 trouncing in the first round of last year’s playoffs, and the team needs a healthy and motivated Edgerrin James to be successful. Additionally, Indy’s defense is suspect, as is its collective team heart. Jacksonville will continue its struggle of the past couple of years, although this year it will be under first-year coach Jack Del Rio instead of drill sergeant Tom Coughlin. Look for improvements in the coming years under Del Rio, the former NFL defensive stalwart, but right now he doesn’t have the bullets in the chamber to contend for a playoff berth. Houston, in its second NFL season, will be lucky to improve upon its 4-12 log in its inaugural 2002 campaign.

Prediction: Tennessee 11-5, Indianapolis 9-7, Jacksonville 5-9, Houston 4-12.

AFC West: This division is among the toughest to predict, because so many of its occupants are seemingly heading in different directions from past seasons. Oakland just reached its first Super Bowl in a decade last January, but got roundly trounced once they got there, and that kind of feeling doesn’t go away quickly. Many prognosticators still feel that the Raiders are the team to beat; I think that a number of teams will do just that against this aging squad, despite its favorable schedule. I mean, QB Rich Gannon is 38 years old, and Jerry Rice is almost 41, Ron Woodson is 38, and Tim Brown is 37. We’re talking old. I know they have some young bucks, but I’m convinced this is a team in transition, and that in Super Bowl XXXVII it blew its best chance at redemption. Dick Vermeil’s previous teams — Philly and St. Louis — began their marches to post-season glory in their third seasons, and this is the veteran coach’s third year at the helm of Kansas City. Defensively there are still some question marks here, but the offense should more than make up for the D’s shortcomings. This is a similar prototype to Vermeil’s last Super Bowl team — the 1999 Rams — with an all-purpose running back in Priest Holmes, a good young QB in Trent Green (coincidentally, Green’s season-ending injury in the Rams’ 1998 exhibition season elevated Kurt Warner into the starting role for the soon-to-be Super Bowl champs), and an improving but acceptable defense. Denver has yet to be the same since John Elway retired in 1998, and the Broncs are rolling the dice on free-agent signee Jake Plummer at the controls. Plummer never lived up to expectations on the woeful Cardinals teams he played on, and this is his opportunity to prove that it was the supporting cast of Arizona players that harnessed his promise all those years. Frankly, I think Jake the Snake will be exposed for the fraud that he is this season, and Denver will continue its downward spiral of the last couple of years. Finally, San Diego has been in the habit the last few seasons of getting off to impressive starts, only to fade from view by Thanksgiving with mid-season swoons. I don’t think that will happen this season. This year I’ll think they’ll start off in the tank — after games against KC, Denver, Baltimore, and Oakland — and gradually climb back toward respectability when the schedule favors them in October and November. Still, in this division they’ll be hard-pressed to stay within even shouting distance of the leaders, and another season of disappointment again looms for Marty Schottenheimer, Doug Flutie (probably in his final NFL season), and LaDainian Tomlinson (who I predict will still win the rushing crown).

Prediction: Kansas City 10-6, Oakland 10-6, Denver 7-9, San Diego 5-9.

Playoff berths: Division winners New England, Baltimore, Tennessee, and KC; wild cards Pittsburgh and Oakland

Coming Monday: The NFC preview (and I promise to write it before the weekend action unfolds so that I won’t have an unfair advantage).

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com