E-Mail This Article to a Friend The 2003 NFL preview: NFC BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

I promise I didn’t write this after this past weekend’s games were played. I wrote it after Washington’s three-point victory over the Jets last Thursday, but who gives the ’Skins much chance in the NFC anyway?

Anyway, let’s get right to it, shall we? Herewith, the outlook for the National Football Conference for the upcoming campaign.

NFC East: After appearing in the past two NFC championship games, Philadelphia seems virtually preordained for coronation as the favorite, if not to advance to the Super Bowl, then at least to make the conference finals. So why do a lot of so-called experts feel that the Eagles have lost something? Certainly they should still be hungry, particularly after coming up just short in recent years; one would also guess that in the spacious new confines of Lincoln Financial Field, the team would flourish after so many painful years in the concrete jungle known as the Vet. Still, the Eagles lost five more defensive stalwarts during the past off-season, and their exhibition season was marked by running back Duce Staley’s bitter holdout. I think a revitalized Donovan McNabb can still take this team places. Like the Raiders in the AFC, however, the Iggles may have let their best chance for a championship slip away over the course of the past two seasons. Not to be taken lightly are the still-mad-as-hell New York Giants, who got off to a 3-4 start last season before rebounding to win seven of their last nine (never mind that inexplicable loss to expansion Houston) and reach the playoffs, where they squandered a big lead and lost a controversial 39-38 decision to the 49ers. Special teams brought down New York last winter. But things have been revamped enough that, coupled with the team’s potent offense, the Giants should be in the thick of things, especially in this unpredictable division. This is year two of the Steve Spurrier experience in Washington, and his struggles should continue despite owner Dan Snyder’s off-season free-agent-signing bonanza. The Redskins are breaking in a new defensive coordinator. They are counting on untested Shane Matthews or Patrick Ramsey to run the complicated offense, and, thanks to the schedule-makers, could very well be 1-6 by the time they hit their bye week in late October. Finally, Bill Parcells returns to the NFL to coach the hapless Dallas Cowboys. Despite his history of turning around struggling programs, he has a dismal cast of characters to work with, and will have to face soap-opera dramas four times this season when he plays his former squads (the Giants twice, the Jets, and the Patriots). Unless he’s lost something, the Tuna will instill his trademark passion into this group of jamokes eventually, but it certainly won’t have immediate results.

Prediction: Philadelphia 10-6; New York 9-7; Washington 6-10; Dallas 4-12.

NFC North: This division could see the long-awaited changing of the guard this season, as Green Bay is beginning to fade, and Minnesota is beginning to return to its former glory. My guess is that this will probably be Packer QB Brett Favre’s last year, and the team will most likely fall apart beginning next season. In the meantime, however, Green Bay should certainly be competitive this season and will probably defend its division title. Nonetheless, it’ll face stiff competition from the Vikings, which closed out last season with three straight wins — including a victory over seemingly playoff-bound Miami — to finish at 6-10. Still, the lack of an established running back and questions about whether quarterback Daunte Culpepper can survive behind the Vikes’ current offensive line will be paramount in determining whether this team builds on its late-season run or remains a brimming-with-potential sub-.500 squad. Detroit is slowly but surely getting better, and its pre-eminent move — hiring ex-49er mentor Steve Mariucci as its head coach — should pay immediate dividends. Still, last year’s defense was 30th against the pass, and the issue hasn’t been addressed sufficiently to make the Lions faithful believe that the team can contend for a playoff berth. Good things will undoubtedly happen soon, though, especially if second-year QB Joey Harrington, the former number-one pick, continues to blossom. Finally, Chicago will get the chance to move back into Soldier Field after a dismal one-year residency in nearby Champaign, which served as the Bears’ home field while the lakeside stadium was being refurbished. The last time the Bears played at Soldier Field, they were division champs; this season looks like another stint as division chumps, following last season’s 4-12 finish. Chicago lost a lot of its key defensive kingpins to free agency or trade, and the addition of former Steeler QB Kordell Stewart hasn’t exactly set hearts aflutter in Chi-town.

Prediction: Green Bay 10-6; Minnesota 8-8; Detroit 5-11; Chicago 3-13.

NFC South: In this conference, the NFC South will most likely be the most competitive. There are all kinds of subplots going on, and the head-to-head intra-division games should make for some tasty viewing. The defending Super Bowl champs still hang their hats here, and Tampa Bay should have another good season. Notice I said "good," not "great," because I think defending champions these days become a little more complacent and a little less hungry once they take the fields for their follow-up seasons. After all, dynasties in the NFL are a vanishing breed, and you have to go back to the Broncos (1998-’99) and Cowboys (1993-’94) to find even a repeat Super Bowl champ. Part of the problem the Bucs will encounter is the head-to-head battles with their division mates — all of which have improved — and for the first time they’ll be wearing the proverbial champions’ bull’s-eye on their chests, a badge of honor that unfortunately means every opponent will play them just a little bit harder. Last year’s Patriots squad found that out the hard way. On paper, Tampa Bay is as good or better than last year’s squad, but there will be other factors at work here. I expect Atlanta to reinforce the notion that last year’s playoff berth and run was no fluke, despite the fact that the team will be missing the mercurial Michael Vick for the first few weeks of the season. Doug Johnson is an able back-up for the Falcons, and the backfield and defense for Dan Reeves’s squad is greatly improved. The team’s penultimate game of the regular season at Tampa could very well decide the division crown. Carolina and its vaunted defense will continue to make strides in this division, and the Panthers are probably just a year away from being playoff contenders. The team doesn’t have a lot of marquee names, but I have a feeling it will be one of the sleepers in the conference and register at least a couple of significant upsets this season. How New Orleans managed to miss the playoffs last season is mind-boggling. Last year’s Saints had only to win one of their final three games to reach the post-season; instead, they dropped all three — to three of the league’s worst teams at the time (Minnesota, Cincy, and Carolina) — and missed out. This season they’ve added speed in the defense, have a trio of quick-footed receivers, and hope to build on the efforts of QB Aaron Brooks and RB Deuce McAllister in proving the skeptics wrong. After all, despite the Saints’ poor finish last season, they did beat the future Super Bowl champs twice.

Prediction: Tampa Bay 11-5, Atlanta 10-6, Carolina 8-8; New Orleans 8-8.

NFC West: A lot of folks like the St. Louis Rams not only to rebound nicely, but perhaps even to return to the Big Game for the third time since 1999. I’m not so certain about that. Sure, the Rams still have Kurt Warner — apparently healthy and loaded for bear — and a more-than-able back-up in Marc Bulger should Warner get hurt, but I still see this as an aging and sometimes underachieving team. Marshall Faulk has gotten plenty banged up over the years, and if the talented all-purpose back doesn’t return to form this season, he may hang ’em up for good. Still, given the opposition St. Louis faces in the division, it’s quite easy to make a case that the Rams should glide to the division title. After all, San Francisco has lost the coach that took the team to the playoffs four times in six years at the helm, and replaced Mariucci with the always unpredictable Dennis Erickson. In addition, the Niners will live and die with the condition of QB Jeff Garcia’s back, and if his problems become chronic this season, the team will be in danger of missing the playoffs altogether. Ten starters on this team will be free agents at the end of this season, so if they play above their heads in anticipation of a fat contract down the road, the 49ers will be okay, but I think that the franchise’s recent resurgence peaked in last season’s playoffs. In other words, it could be all downhill from here for San Francisco, which gives hope to teams like Seattle, a squad that gained instant credibility by hiring Ray Rhodes to oversee its sterling defense. Head coach Mike Holmgren’s decision to relinquish his GM duties should allow a greater focus on the team’s on-field strengths and weaknesses, though he’s still in a do-or-die year as far as his future employment goes, since he’s had five years in the Emerald City and the Seahawks have yet to reach the post-season under his watch. The progress made by fifth-year QB Matt Hasselbeck, the former BC product, along with those of running back Shaun Alexander, will go a long way in determining Holmgren’s — and the team’s — fate. Lastly, the NFL’s worst team, Arizona, will try to go it alone without franchise quarterback Jake Plummer, who chased the free-agent dollars in Denver. With him, the Cardinals were 5-11; without him, it will be downright gruesome. Guaranteed.

Prediction: St. Louis 10-6; San Francisco 8-8; Seattle 8-8; Arizona 3-13.

Playoff berths: Division winners Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, Green Bay, and St. Louis; wild cards Atlanta and New York. (Hmmm, looks a little bit like last year’s.)

* * *

Back to the present.

Back on August 8 — heading into a Friday day-night doubleheader with the Orioles at Fenway, we wrote:

"Both the Yanks and Sox have pretty comfortable September schedules, with both squads getting the opportunity to feast on the likes of Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Detroit, and Chicago during the final month. With the slates so similar, it is unlikely that either AL East rival will be able to make up significant ground in the final weeks if one of them has managed to establish a decent lead in the standings. Therefore, a lot of people believe that the AL East standings that will exist when we wake up on Monday, September 8, will pretty much mirror what the final standings will look like three weeks later. As a result, for Boston to have any chance to overtake the pinstripers in the standings, it will pretty much need to take two out of three in each of the upcoming home-and-away series against the A’s and Mariners, and then dominate the remaining six head-to-head match-ups that it has with New York on Labor Day weekend and the following weekend. And when that sixth and final encounter in the Bronx is over and done with, that’s when that magical September 8 date will dawn."

Well, here it is, September 8, and what has transpired? Back on August 8 the Sox were 21 games over .500, trailed the Yankees by two and a half games, and led the wild-card race by a game and a half over Oakland. Now, a month later, the Sox are still two and half games behind New York, are still a game and a half in the lead in the wild card (although this time it’s over Seattle, not Oakland), and are 24 games above .500, a reflection of their 16-13 record over that period. That’s not bad, considering the level of competition and the fact that Boston started off that stretch 4-9 and then won 12 of the next 16, which included a pair of five-game-win streaks. Boston took five of seven from Seattle (which precipitated the Mariners’ fall from the apex of the AL West), three of seven from Oakland, and split six contests with the Empire.

So what do we know now that we didn’t know back on August 8?

Well, it seems that Tampa, Baltimore, and Chicago are playing a whole lot better than they were back then, and Oakland and Seattle are playing a whole lot worse.

Other than that, all we know for sure is that baseball fans are in for a helluva three weeks.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com