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The AL contenders: Do you feel lucky?
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Each of the remaining four teams fighting for the remaining three relevant American League playoff berths enters this weekend with approximately 17 games to go in the regular season. What those individual teams do with those 17 games will determine whether they’re playing around apple-pickin’ time — or pickin’ the apples themselves.

Indeed, it is a shame, and somewhat unfair, that one of these teams will be eliminated from further play, despite most likely finishing 20-plus games above .500 — when the AL Central will probably be won by a team just 10 games over. But we’re not talking today about what’s fair, because Oakland and Seattle will moan until the cows come home that they didn’t have the luxury of playing league patsies Baltimore and Tampa Bay 19 times each, as New York and Boston did. They’re right: it’s not fair, but they knew the rules in advance, and have long ago forfeited the right to complain, even if the uneven schedule and the overall strength of their own division will probably cost either the Mariners or A’s that coveted post-season spot.

The AL Central race, by the way, has developed into a very interesting competition, with Chicago, Minnesota, and Kansas City all within four games of each other, and, because of their mediocre records, unable to fall back on a wild-card berth if they fall short of the division crown. But for Yankees yowzahs, Mariners maniacs, Athletics supporters, and Red Sox Nation, who the heck cares about the AL Central race, other than as a determinant of a possible first-round opponent? The more pressing business at hand is getting to the playoffs in the first place, and this is no time to be distracted. Seventeen games are all that’s left to whittle down the contenders from the pretenders. So if you’re a follower of these four playoff hopefuls, do you feel lucky? Well, do ya, punk?

New York. Yankees fans are probably sleeping pretty well at night, knowing that their team is heading into a four-game weekend series against the 58-86 Devil Rays with a solid four-game lead in the AL East. It was just six days ago that the Bombers held a tenuous one-and-a-half-game lead on the Red Sox after back-to-back batterings in the Bronx, but the schedule-makers this past week gave New York three games against the Tigers to right its ship, and not surprisingly the Yanks emerged victorious in all three against 37-108 (!) Detroit. The Yankees’ only cause for concern in the coming weeks is the lengthy road trip coming up on Monday. Sure, the competition isn’t fierce, but strange things can happen in road contests, especially when it’s the Yankees in town and the hometown team hopes to boost its 2004 season-ticket fan base with glimmers of hope for the future. Indeed, the Empire’s visits to Baltimore (for four), Tampa (three), and AL Central–leading Chicago (three) may prove decisive for the American League East. While the Yanks are on the road for those 10 games, Boston will be home against the O’s and Rays for eight of those 10 dates. First up for the New Yorkers: a fearsome foursome against Tampa this weekend, including a double-header on Saturday. Given New York’s recent plague of hit-or-miss starting pitching, an offense that struggles whenever it faces decent pitching, and a bullpen in seeming disarray, the Yankees must take care of business with a four-game sweep this weekend (or at least three out of four). A series win like that, coupled with Boston’s potential difficulties with the White Sox at Fenway this weekend, should put enough distance between the Empire Staters and the Bostonians to allow New York to coast to the division crown. Maybe.

Boston. Of the four teams remaining in the hunt, the Red Sox have undoubtedly the easiest schedule. Granted, they don’t have any scheduled days off during this 17-day run, but their depth and seemingly stable starting pitching should keep them ahead in the wild-card race during this critical three-week stretch. Once the White Sox leave town on Sunday, the Sox have to deal with only Tampa Bay (for seven), Baltimore (for four), and three games against hopelessly out-of-it Cleveland — a team that if not for the pitiful Tigers would be safely ensconced in last place in the AL Central. Sure, the Devils Rays and particularly the Orioles have given Boston some fits this season, but both of these teams simply do not match the Red Sox’ firepower. As it has throughout the season, the bullpen will make or break the Sox’ efforts to advance; Boston’s starting pitching (especially Pedro and Lowe) appears to be on cruise control, while the offense careens along at a record-breaking pace. Crucially, just six of those 17 games are on the road, and the team’s 46-24 home record (along with its .323 team average at Fenway), along with its focus and determination, should carry it to the wild-card berth. The division crown would be even better, of course, not only because it would come at the expense of the Yankees, but because it would also allow the AL East champ to draw battle-weary Chicago, Minnesota, or KC in the divisional series, along with the very real possibility of home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Otherwise, as the wild-card winner, Boston would travel to Oakland or Seattle in the first round, with the home-field advantage going to the West winner.

Oakland. The A’s didn’t have a record 20-game win streak this season to vault them atop the division as they did last year, but they did take advantage of the Mariners’ struggles in August to establish a two-and-a-half-game lead in the division. After Oakland left Boston on August 21, it ripped off 10 straight wins. Although the team lost consecutive series in Tampa and Baltimore recently, the A’s head into their weekend series at Texas having taken three of four in Anaheim. Oakland’s next nine games — three-game series at Texas, at Anaheim, and home with Seattle — are particularly crucial, since the Athletics’ road record of 34-38 is hardly impressive. Added to that, Oakland and Seattle meet head-to-head during the last two weekends of the regular season, so if the division race is close in the final 10 days, those two foes will be playing at a fever pitch leading up to their final Armageddon at Safeco Field September 26-28. Oakland’s schedule is just a little bit easier than Seattle’s during this final 17-game run, and its superior pitching and rejuvenated offense should allow it to breeze to the West championship without ever relinquishing the lead.

Seattle. Not to blow our own horn, but in our AL Preview back in April, we predicted: ". . . [T]he age of [Seattle's] roster may play a factor for the team this season. Six of the Mariners’ pitchers will turn 34 or older this season, and number-two starter Jamie Moyer and DH Edgar Martinez each turned 40 over the winter. All told, 17 members of the 25-man roster are 30 years or older, and their foremost superstar, Ichiro Suzuki, will hit the big 3-0 in October." It seems that the geezer factor may be catching up to the Mariners late in the season, and ever since Seattle took two of three at home against Boston August 15-17, the Mariners have struggled to put together a string of victories. Since the Sox left town, the M’s have gone just 9-13, including a four-game sweep at Boston and series losses against the Devil Rays (both home and away) and the Orioles. Those were games that Seattle absolutely needed to win, given that their AL East counterparts will feast on those two squads during the final weeks of the season. Now, by squandering those opportunities, Seattle is faced with a schedule that includes a home series this weekend against the Angels, followed by a 10-game road trip that will take them to Texas (four), Oakland (three), and Anaheim (three). None of those teams is a slouch, and even though the Mariners’ road record of 39-32 is second only to the Yankees’, the road trip will most likely take its toll, and the aging squad will continue its descent into the pool of the American League also-rans. It’s too bad, because this is a very likeable squad, and it’s been in contention each of the past three seasons. Nonetheless, heartbreak is what it’s all about (and is not Boston's private domain), and unfortunately this year’s edition will most likely end up as previous Mariners’ squads have: on the outside looking in.

Which leaves the Yankees, Red Sox, and A’s taking the three remaining spots, with either the White Sox or Twins taking the fourth spot. Should the aforementioned scenarios hold true, then the Yankees would host either the Twins (who have lost 13 straight against the pinstripers) or the White Sox, while Boston would travel to Oakland for its best-of-three series.

In the meantime, for the Yankee yowzahs, it’s business as usual; for the Athletics supporters it’s pitching, pitching, and more pitching (and, with any luck, a first-round victory for the first time in a decade); and for Red Sox Nation, it’s the first playoff berth since 1999.

After that — well, let’s let ’em get there first.

"Sporting Eye" runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com. Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com


Issue Date: September 12, 2003
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2003 |2002
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