E-Mail This Article to a Friend Did the Red Sox blow their last best chance? BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Once the anger and disappointment over the events of October 23 subsided for Red Sox fans, the one comfort followers could take was that the team — which came so close to reaching the World Series and perhaps even winning it — would be brought back relatively intact for the 2004 season. Oh sure, there were some players that were bound to bolt when their contracts expired, and undoubtedly the Sox brass was eager to part ways with some of those guys whose efforts were deemed disappointing this past season. But the core superstars and key members of this season’s cadre of cowboys was signed, sealed, and (assumed to be) delivered for next season’s campaign. After all, when a team comes within a couple of innings of a World Series berth, then not too much needs to be tinkered with, right? Just assorted fine-tuning, with additions by addition, attrition, and subtraction.

It’s the old if-it-ain’t-broke-don’t-fix-it strategy. Especially when the team’s most formidable foe, the Yankees, will be in a position to significantly revamp their pitching staff with the expected departures of Roger Clemens, David Wells, and (possibly via free agency) Andy Pettitte. This year’s Red Sox team won 95 games, and had it not been for the unresolved bullpen situation through the season’s first three months, Boston could very well have won over 100 under the right circumstances.

This was precisely the situation facing the Sox following the ’86 season, which, in case you forgot, featured a World Series berth and a one-strike-away collapse, as opposed to the 2003 team’s five-outs-away breakdown. The squad that showed up in Winter Haven in 1987 was pretty much the same team that had wept in the catacombs of Shea Stadium just five months earlier, and it was expected that the left-at-the-altar team would again contend for the championship.

Didn’t happen. The ’86 team, with a then-whopping $16-million payroll, had gone 95-67 to win the AL East before stunning the California Angels in seven games to step right up and greet the Mets. The ’87 squad, with $3 million shorn from its payroll, finished a dismal 78-84 and a remarkable 20 games behind the division-winning Tigers. The discrepancy in results came for a variety of reasons, but the point was that the ’87 team was practically a mirror image of the AL-pennant-winning team, which made sense considering how successful that near-miss ’86 club was.

Red Sox Nation is well aware of the cataclysmic events that were expected to unfold at the end of this upcoming season — the impending free agency of Pedro Martinez, Derek Lowe, Trot Nixon, Nomar Garciaparra, and Jason Varitek — but they didn’t expect wholesale changes in the 2004 roster. You don’t mess with success, right?

Well now it seems like the Boston Red Sox team that shows up in Fort Myers next spring could have a whole new look after all, especially if you believe the weekend prognostications of Boston Globe beat writer Gordon Edes.

Sox fans throughout New England were prepared for an upheaval in the team’s personnel a year from now, but not now. Not when the team was obviously a close-knit bunch that assumed the mantle of destiny’s darlings until fate so cruelly intervened 11 days ago.

All of a sudden, Red Sox followers' comfort level is dropping at a rapid pace, raising the question: Is this team rebuilding? Did this squad as it was conceived last season blow its best hope at post-season glory?

If Edes is right in his predictions, then the team which crashed and burned in the Bronx a fortnight ago will look completely different come spring, and that is not necessarily a good thing for the team’s devotees.

A little tune-up was expected; a complete overhaul was not. And one must admit that team chemistry is a delicate thing, and upsetting that balance could jettison the franchise’s hope for a quick return to the AL playoffs and beyond.

Let’s take a look at Edes’s thoughts about the team as presently composed. The team’s free agents are few: John Burkett, Bob Howry, Todd Jones, David McCarty, Robert Person, Mike Timlin, Jeremy Giambi, and Todd Walker. Only Timlin and Walker made significant contributions in 2003, but Sox management seems only interested in re-signing Timlin, even though Walker had a spectacular post-season and a decent regular season (.283, 13 HRs, 85 RBIs). Walker has even been quoted as saying he wants to stay and would even take a hometown discount to re-sign, but the Sox believe that his defensive liabilities outweigh his offense and his cost ($3.4 million last season). So there goes one critical piece of the 2003 team, and possibly two if the 37-year-old Timlin (38 in March) — arguably the Sox’ best set-up man since June — opts for greener pastures. And Jeff Suppan, whom the Sox picked up at the trading deadline for prospect Freddy Sanchez, did not have his $4 million option for next season picked up, so the team has now lost both players for good and received very, very little in return.

Then you’ve got the arbitration-eligible guys. These are the guys who are technically still under contract to the team, but whose 2004 salary will be determined by an arbitrator if the two sides cannot agree to an acceptable figure during the off-season. These fellows include Byung Hyun Kim, Scott Sauerbeck, Scott Williamson, Doug Mirabelli, Damian Jackson, Lou Merloni, Gabe Kapler, and Trot Nixon. Edes thinks that Kim, Sauerbeck, Jackson, Merloni, and Kapler could all be non-tendered (not offered arbitration, thus making them unrestricted free agents). If that is true, then only Williamson and Nixon among the key 2004 contributors will be back, plus lesser role-players like Mirabelli, who will likely be offered only a one-year deal. It seems a shame to say adios to such solid citizens as Jackson, Merloni, and Kapler, all of whom were vital pieces to the puzzle this past season and always gave 100 percent (while a good riddance is applicable to the vastly underachieving Sauerbeck). The situation swirling around Kim is more complicated, since he could be a good addition to the rotation in Burkett’s absence. Still, he burned some bridges when he flipped off the Fenway fans in the ALDS, and his reputation as a top-notch closer is somewhat in doubt. Frankly, I’d be surprised to see him back next season, and if he is non-tendered, then the Sox will have sacrificed Kim, the 24-year-old perceived closer of the future, and third baseman Shea Hillenbrand and again received little in return.

Under these parameters, you have now lost Walker, Timlin, Suppan, Kim, Sauerbeck, Jackson, Merloni, McCarty, and Kapler — already one-third of the 2003 playoff roster.

Now let’s get to the more complex issues concerning the cornerstones of the Red Sox organization. Pedro has hinted that after his $17.5-million season is up next fall, he will go somewhere else. If that is the case, then does the team hold on to him for the entire 2004 campaign, knowing that it will receive next to nothing back once his contract is up? And does the team want to negotiate muchos dólares with the Dominican right-hander, knowing that he has a history of physical breakdowns and will turn 33 next October? Edes believes that the team might be shopping Pedro around, as it seems to be with the other two bar-none superstars, Ramirez and Garciaparra.

Ramirez, as most know, was put on waivers last week, although it was not surprising that no major-league team wanted to cough up the five-year, $100 million commitment it would require to pick him up and add the 31-year-old slugger to its roster. The Sox still owe $97.5 million to the problematic outfielder over the next five seasons, but Manny’s heart and defense liabilities are questioned by the team, and his act has worn thin among the Sox brass, his teammates, and the fans. In a perfect world, Manny would be traded for two or three up-and-coming major-leaguers, but his contract is such that it would be fiduciary suicide for any team to devote such a high percentage of its team salary to one player.

Garciaparra would make things a whole lot easier if he would just come out and say, "You know, I love it in Boston, I don’t want to play anywhere else, and I’m very interested in signing a long-term deal that will keep me here for the rest of my career." Unfortunately, those words seemingly have not been said, and the departure of Nomar is the single most frightening vision for Red Sox Nation. He is absolutely adored by this town (despite his late-season struggles), and no player better represents the Red Sox persona. Still, he, like Pedro and Manny, has beefs with the media, and this past season he cocooned himself into a post-game model of clichés and platitudes, all the while giving out signs that he’d enjoy playing somewhere else. If that is truly the case, then Sox management is faced with the same problem it is facing with Pedro, and that’s why Edes believes that Nomar may also be on the trading block, difficult as that may be to conceive. Trading Garciaparra would be sacrilegious to the Nation — it's devoted to him — and would change the whole complexion of the team as it has been built. Still, if Wayne Gretzky can be traded, and Drew Bledsoe can be traded, and Ray Bourque can be traded, then it’s not inconceivable that number five won’t ultimately be dealt, too.

So let’s assume the unimaginable and ludicrous: that Pedro, Manny, and Nomar are all shuttled during the off-season. That leaves, as your defending American League runners-up to be introduced on Opening Day:

Derek Lowe, Tim Wakefield, Bronson Arroyo, Alan Embree, Casey Fossum, Ramiro Mendoza, Scott Williamson, Jason Varitek, Doug Mirabelli, Kevin Millar, Bill Mueller, David Ortiz, Johnny Damon, and Trot Nixon. Just 12 guys will remain of the 25 that went to war against the Yankees two weeks ago, with the balance of the roster filled in with TBAs.

And don’t forget that a brand-new manager will lead this team, and he too is an unknown.

Rebuilding an engine that just lost the Indianapolis 500 by a car length does not seem to be the most logical thing to do, but over on Yawkey Way, the reconstruction of the Boston Red Sox franchise is indeed in full throttle. It may not make much sense, and may cost the team vital components in personality, clubhouse presence, and on-field contributions — and in fact decimate a team that surpassed the ’27 Yankees in offensive firepower — but as usual, Red Sox fans have to trust those in charge.

They may not always agree with the decisions, but Red Sox fans figure that the brass must know what it is doing when it overhauls a product that was pretty damn good to begin with.

We’ll see.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com