June 2 through September 16 (Primary Day)

It’s difficult to predict how the convention will shake out. But regardless of how many candidates end up on the ballot, we can count on a couple of things. The first is that any primary that includes Birmingham, O’Brien, and Galvin will be ugly. Birmingham has yet to undergo full vetting as a candidate. Any currently unknown negative about him will likely emerge during this period — that is, if any exists.

O’Brien, meanwhile, is readying herself for a primary mud-fest. Her husband, R. Emmet Hayes, sold his lobbying firm in early December, just as the Boston Herald was preparing a story on his work for the now-bankrupt energy firm Enron. (The state’s pension fund purchased 1.5 million shares of Enron, losing millions of dollars.) It should be noted, though, that Hayes was planning to sell his firm prior to the Herald inquiry. Regardless, Hayes’s move shows desire on O’Brien’s part to insulate herself from the press scrutiny that’s sure to begin in earnest come June.

As for Galvin, well, his nickname is the "Prince of Darkness" — a moniker earned, in part, by his reputation for feeding negative stories to the press. "It’s going to be one bomb after another," says one Democratic observer.

Democratic Party chair Phil Johnston already anticipates a primary slugfest and is calling for calm among the candidates. "During the primary campaign, I’m going to do everything I can to encourage candidates to avoid personal attacks," he says.

In the area of campaign financing, if Grossman makes it onto the ballot, his personal wealth could become a factor. He’s already raised almost $2.1 million, roughly $600,000 less than Birmingham’s $2.7 million. But Grossman has millions more of his own funds that he can use to fuel his primary bid. In a statewide run, where expensive television advertising is critical to any campaign, Grossman’s money will be a factor.

That said, money will not be the sole determinant in this race — the way it was in the New York City mayor’s race won by Michael Bloomberg. Most of the major candidates should have enough money to run television ads, and get-out-the-vote efforts could still make a difference — especially if there’s a large field of candidates.

As for Birmingham, his convention machinations may come back to haunt him in the primary. It’s not just that strong-arm tactics will make him look bad (and they will). There’s also the fact that candidates who aggressively cater to the whims of convention delegates often need to move so far to the left that they are no longer viable statewide primary candidates — let alone viable challengers to the Republican nominee.

September 17 through November 5 (Election Day)

After an ugly primary, the Democrats will have to make a show of unity just as the general election gets under way.

Historically, this has been difficult because the party is so deeply divided between its conservative and liberal wings. In 1990, for example, the Ed King Democrats — named for the Nahant conservative who wrested control of the party away from Michael Dukakis between 1978 and 1982 — rallied behind Silber, leaving social progressives at sea; many backed Weld. In 1994 and 1998, the progressive nominees won the day — former state senator Mark Roosevelt and then–attorney general Harshbarger, respectively, got the nod. But conservative Democrats were cool to them, and the chill blew on Election Day. House Speaker Tom Finneran, for example, tortured Harshbarger, referring to him as a "member of the loony left" — a charge that didn’t exactly hurt former governor Paul Cellucci in the general election.

"We have the numbers to win. The only way we can lose is if we’re divided," says Johnston. "I’m absolutely determined that that will not happen this time. That’s why I’m working very closely with the Speaker and all the wings of the Democratic Party to make sure that we are unified." The message to the gentleman from Mattapan? No more cracks about the "loony left." Whether or not Finneran and others listen, however, is another matter altogether.

The Democrats, nonetheless, do need to move to the center. Remember that only 34 percent of Massachusetts’ registered voters are Democrats, compared with the 51 percent who are unenrolled independents. But here’s where the Green Party’s Jill Stein can wreak some Ralph Nader–like havoc at the polls. The more the Democrats move to the center in the general election on issues like fiscal management, crime, and education, the more they open themselves up to vulnerability from the Green Party challenge on the left. (See "The Issues," page 20.)

This doesn’t mean Swift has an easy ride ahead of her. She’s got a lot to worry about. Ongoing woes at Logan Airport and the Turnpike Authority. A possible billion-dollar increase in the final price of the Big Dig (see "Playing the Numbers," News and Features, December 6, 2001). And then there’s the economy. A recent study by Northeastern University, as reported two weeks ago by the Boston Globe, shows that Massachusetts is losing jobs more quickly than most other states. Even worse, job losses are highest along the Route 128/495 belt, which carries disproportionate political significance. After all, this is the region that propelled the Republicans to three of their biggest electoral victories in the past decade. "Harshbarger-Cellucci was decided there, Weld-Silber was decided there, Kerry-Weld was decided there," says the McCormack Institute’s Lou DiNatale. "This is the absolute center of gravity in Massachusetts politics, and Swift is in trouble there."

DiNatale points to a recent survey he conducted showing that 31 percent of voters in this area found Swift’s unfavorability rating "very high" — not an auspicious way to start off a campaign. Her battle to raise tolls — which recently escalated when she fired Turnpike Authority board members Christy Mihos and Jordan Levy — will not do her any good here, either. Many of these voters bear the direct burden of increased turnpike tolls.

And they’re sure to be angry when they get to the ballot booth in the fall. With state coffers in their worst shape since 1990, the stage is set for some pretty lively political battles, the first of which will fall due on February 2. And with this cast of characters, we know it will be ugly.

Bring it on.

Seth Gitell can be reached at sgitell[a]phx.com