KERRY SUPPORTERS are confident their candidate will win the New Hampshire primary handily. "There are simply not the financial resources for Dean to break through what will likely be a crowded field," says one Kerry supporter. "The only way for him to distinguish himself will be as a reformer or a truth-teller, but those are also credentials shared by Kerry, with his credentials on campaign-finance reform and the environment. And in the end, Lieberman’s strengths on foreign policy are more than matched by Kerry’s personal history as a decorated veteran, and Al Gore’s Hamlet routine will squeeze off Lieberman’s ability to build a campaign infrastructure and base of financial supporters in time for the presidency."

Alan Solomont, the former finance chair for the Democratic National Committee, says he likes Kerry’s chances. "He brings some assets that are unique — his military service along with his record of foreign-policy expertise," says Solomont. "He’s generally staked out positions that are in the middle, and he doesn’t have the baggage that leaders such as Daschle and Gephardt possess."

While the prospect of a New England political battle has the juices of some political junkies flowing, talk-show host Arnesen says none of the candidates has captured state voters’ imaginations yet. With New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen running for the Senate, Arnesen’s callers have taken to wondering about which Democratic big shot the governor will call upon for help. "John Kerry is not going to have cachet for Shaheen, nor Lieberman nor Dean," she says, not even mentioning Dean. "The only one she could bring in is Martin Sheen [who plays President Josiah Bartlet on NBC’s The West Wing]."

Listen to some political pundits these days and it sounds like Bartlet’s the only New Englander who could be elected president. Many commentators still keep to the Southern strategy, which holds that only a Southern male moderate — like Clinton in 1992 — has the ability to win the entire country.

"The Democratic ticket in 2000 failed to win a commanding victory because it consisted of two Eastern liberals," notes Whitehead. "In the intervening eight years, Al Gore had become an Eastern liberal, and Senator Lieberman, while a moderate by New England standards, is seen by the rest of the country as a New England ethnic liberal."

For this reason, some analysts are keeping their eyes not on how Kerry, Lieberman, or Dean does in New Hampshire, but on how well Edwards performs. If he can come close to Kerry, then he — not Kerry — will have won the New Hampshire expectations game. Remember, Muskie — not McGovern — actually won the New Hampshire primary. And 20 years later, Clinton similarly came close enough to Tsongas to come out of New Hampshire with momentum.

"The question is to watch John Edwards, Clinton-lite," says Marshall Wittmann, a political analyst at the officially nonpartisan but rightward-leaning Hudson Institute. "He now has a soft-populist appeal and will be touted as the guy who can win. Remember, the Democrats have not won the presidency since 1960 without a Southerner at the top of the ticket."

It is thinking like this that makes a huge performance — not just a win — so vital to Kerry in New Hampshire. Everyone will be looking to see how he does in his own back yard. And this is what makes Dean’s (and to a lesser extent, Lieberman’s) New England aspirations so dangerous to him. While a New Englander, Lieberman is running for president as a former vice-presidential candidate who helped head the Democratic ticket in 2000. His niche, centrist Democrat, relates more to ideology than geography; in this way he can cut as much into Edwards’s support as into Kerry’s. On the other hand, Dean, from neighboring Vermont, poses a greater geographic threat to Kerry. By dint of proximity alone, Dean may be able to generate enough buzz to prevent Kerry from walking away from New Hampshire.

At this point, Dean might want to remember a chapter from his own political memory. In 1964, New York governor Nelson Rockefeller looked like he was on his way to the Republican nomination, when Henry Cabot Lodge’s son began a write-in campaign on his father’s behalf. Lodge, the Yankee favorite, did well enough to take the wind out of the sails of Rockefeller, his ideological counterpart — paving the way for a Goldwater victory. In The Making of the President, 1964, political reporter Theodore White contended that Rockefeller would have won the nomination had it not been for Lodge. Dean, like Lodge, ultimately may play the spoiler in New Hampshire.

With less than two years to go, the road to the White House still runs through New Hampshire. But whether it’s a bump on the road or a jump-start to the presidency remains to be seen. We’ll have to see how many of the next 711 days Kerry, Lieberman, and Dean spend in the Granite State.

Seth Gitell can be reached at sgitell[a]phx.com

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