DESPITE THE GREENS’ organizational problems and failure to gain traction in the race so far, state Democrats still worry about the "Nader effect." If Stein gets on the ballot, Democrats fear that she’ll draw votes away from the eventual Democratic nominee, thus throwing the election to the Republicans — which, many Democrats believe, is what Nader did to Gore in 2000.

"I’m very concerned about the Green Party, and all liberals should be," says State Democratic Party chair Phil Johnston. "Every vote in 2002 that goes to Jill Stein will be a vote away from the Democratic candidate for governor and [therefore] will be a vote to elect Mitt Romney." Johnston plans an exhaustive outreach effort by the party to disenfranchised progressives. He will call upon such legislators as Congressman Barney Frank of Newton and State Representative Jim Marzilli of Arlington to convince progressives to stay with Democrats.

"The best way to move American politics to the left is from within the Democratic Party, not from the outside," says Frank. "If people want to give Tom Finneran a little bit more agita than he’s getting, you do that through the Democratic primaries." For his part, Marzilli calls the prospect of a Green gubernatorial candidacy "horrifying" for the progressive cause. "I don’t think there’s another governor in the country that’s as progressive as any of the Democratic candidates for governor," says Marzilli, who is supporting Reich. "I don’t think you’re going to find a candidate who has a better chance of winning [than] Bob Reich and agrees with as many Green Party principles — the environment, energy conservation, misdistribution of wealth."

Despite it all, Greens remain optimistic. Kastner, Stein’s campaign manager, says these voters will scurry back to the Greens after the Democratic primary. "When Bob Reich doesn’t get the Democratic Party nomination, a lot of progressive Democrats are going to need someplace to go," she says. "That’s going to be us."

A scenario wherein Treasurer Shannon O’Brien, Senate president Tom Birmingham, or former Democratic National Committee chair Steve Grossman gains the nomination would play in the Greens’ favor. It would present the classic Gore-Nader-type scenario: a pro-business or "insider" Democratic candidate wins the nomination, creating a niche for a progressive outsider. But to exploit this scenario, the Greens must get their own house in order — quickly.

As a former media strategist for Minnesota senator Paul Wellstone, Governor Jesse Ventura, and Green Party presidential candidate Ralph Nader, Bill Hillsman, a Kennedy School Institute of Politics fellow, has seen both sides of the coin. He’s seen progressive Democrats win statewide elections and Green candidates perform strongly. He’s also seen lightning strike, as in the case of Ventura.

If all the stars align — if the Greens get their full Clean Elections money, if they can get on the ballot, if they face the right Democratic nominee, if Stein can get into the televised debates (as Ventura did) — Hillsman figures they might be able to pull out the biggest upset in the political history of the Commonwealth. That may seem like a utopian dream right now, but Hillsman contends that with its high percentage of independent voters and progressives, Massachusetts is the type of place — like the Pacific Northwest, New Mexico, and the Upper Midwest — that could put a party like the Greens over the top.

But it’s a difficult scenario to swallow. "I think [Libertarian Party gubernatorial candidate] Carla Howell is going to be more of a problem for the Republicans than Jill Stein is for the Democrats," says Democratic strategist Mary Anne Marsh.

Marsh may have a point — especially since the Greens may not even get on the ballot. In fact, Johnston may be worrying too much about losing votes to the Greens. If the general election ends up being won by the votes of conservative Democrats who gravitate to Romney or moderate independents, Democrats could easily blame the Green program for forcing them to adopt part of their platform, and in so doing turning off swing voters. Of course, this is the same debate the national Democrats have every four years. If the Greens’ goal is to get the Democrats to copy them, they may succeed. But that could also mean four more years of Republican rule in the governor’s office. So if their objective is to spoil things for the Democrats, it could be their year after all.

Seth Gitell can be reached at sgitell[a]phx.com

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