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THE BPPA’S 1988 endorsement of Bush the Elder didn’t mark the first time in recent years that a Massachusetts law-enforcement union did — or seemed to do — the GOP’s bidding. In 1990, picketing by the Springfield Police Union delayed the opening of the state Democratic Party convention for several hours when a large number of delegates refused to cross the police picket line. The state Democratic Party subsequently sued Republican political operative Ron Kaufman and Springfield Police Union head Robert Jacobson, alleging they had conspired to stage the protest. Kaufman countersued, and the cases were eventually dropped. But to this day, many state Dems are certain that Kaufman, now one of two Republican National Committee representatives from Massachusetts, engineered the debacle. "I will never not believe that was a Republican National Committee production," one Democratic insider says.

Could a comparable scenario play out at the FleetCenter? Massachusetts Republican Party executive director Dominick Ianno says there have been no conversations between the patrolmen’s association and the state GOP; spokespersons for the Bush-Cheney campaign and the Republican National Committee also say there’s no evidence of any communication with the union. It’s further worth noting that the patrolmen’s association gave Kerry key assistance in 1996, throwing the senator its endorsement during a pitched battle with Republican governor Bill Weld.

In his recent interview with Keller, Nee, who lives in Marshfield and is a registered Democrat, spoke critically of the current president and favorably of Kerry. On the other hand, while Nee spent most of the interview looking grim and speaking in soft, grave tones, he struggled to suppress a smile when Keller mentioned the photo of a beaming George H.W. Bush — flanked by members of the BPPA — featured on the union’s Web site. Ultimately, Nee did not rule out endorsing Bush, and reiterated that he expects Democratic delegates would refuse to cross a union picket line. If the BPPA still lacks a contract come convention time, Nee and other union leaders may conclude that this year, their interests and those of the Republican Party converge.

"It’s not like they’re sitting together in a giant cabal," the same Democrat suggests. "But the Republicans are interested in mucking up the convention and making the Democrats look bad. If their interests come together at that particular point in time, why wouldn’t they work together?"

BOTH SIDES have strong incentives to settle before the Democratic convention. Transportation hassles, terrorism concerns, potential lost revenue for the city — right now, all those problems are beyond Menino’s purview. But union strife is one area over which he has direct control. By preventing a BPPA-led picket line, the mayor would avert one potential headache at what’s quickly becoming an increasingly hard-to-manage event. Meanwhile, if Nee and the patrolmen’s association haven’t negotiated a new contract by the time of the convention, their most potent bargaining chip becomes valueless. "They’ll have no leverage," says one City Hall observer. "If they couldn’t kick Menino’s shins in through having the Democratic Convention in Boston, they’ve got nothing."

Recent developments could increase the chances of a pre-convention settlement. Twenty-seven of the city’s 32 public unions still lack contracts. But after reaching agreements with 1500 workers represented by the American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees (AFSCME) last week, the city has finalized contracts or tentative agreements with more than half its union employees. Several union sources suggest that additional agreements are imminent. "We can sense the city is serious about it," says Susana Segat, deputy trustee of SEIU 888, which represents approximately 2500 city support staff. "They’re helping us schedule meetings, they’re not canceling meetings as much, they’re offering more dates. The money offers that we got originally were really insulting, but now they’re starting to be in the ballpark."

Then again, if Menino wants to undo the damage caused by concessions made in the firefighters’ 2001 contract, he may take a hard line with the patrolmen simply to show that bombastic negotiating tactics no longer work. This scenario is more plausible today than it was six months ago, given that local unions aren’t exactly embracing the BPPA’s cause. The building-trades unions (which are private, not municipal) have indicated a BPPA picket line won’t keep them from doing pre-convention construction. And in April, Bob Kilduff of the firefighters’ union sent a letter to that union’s membership decrying the BPPA’s fixation on firefighters’ salaries and accusing the patrolmen’s association of "warped reasoning, misinformation, and manipulation of fact." Or, if Menino thinks the BPPA is poised to endorse George W. Bush during the convention — a development that could be far more embarrassing than a union picket line — he may simply write the patrolmen’s association off.

According to sources close to negotiations between the city and the BPPA, some heavy political hitters — including the staunchly pro-union Kennedy and AFL-CIO president John Sweeney — have been personally intervening to help hasten a deal. And last week, newly appointed police commissioner Kathleen O’Toole participated in an eight-hour negotiating session brokered by the state’s Joint Labor-Management Committee, which facilitates negotiations between municipalities and their police and fire departments, and intervened at the City of Boston’s request. During the meeting, the two sides reportedly were as close as they’ve been to reaching an agreement.

They didn’t get there, however. Instead, Nee later complained that he was insulted when Boston chief operating officer DiMarzio flipped two dimes at him, apparently in jest. The city and the union will have another chance to reach an agreement this Friday, when the next negotiation session takes place. It’s clear that Menino and the BPPA both have ample reason to reach an agreement soon. But if the past is any indication, that doesn’t mean they will.

Adam Reilly can be reached at areilly[a]phx.com.