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Such criticism is sure to become more prevalent when the school-assignment issue captures the spotlight later this year. Most of the proposed plans the task force has presented to the public seek some sort of middle ground between advocates of neighborhood schools and proponents of school choice. But by offering a range of compromise solutions, the group may simply have disappointed both camps. During the two sets of public forums, school-choice supporters frequently argued that any return to a neighborhood-schools framework would be irresponsible given the poor conditions in many Boston schools — especially those in low-income neighborhoods with large numbers of black, Latino, and Asian residents. (District Four city councilor Charles Yancey dismisses the student-assignment-plan review process as a "euphemistic approach to ... re-segregating the schools based on segregated neighborhoods.")

For their part, neighborhood-schools devotees aren’t delighted with the options suggested by the task force either. The proposals vary greatly: one would divide the city into 12 zones for elementary students and 10 zones for middle-schoolers, sharply curtailing choice but virtually guaranteeing that children would go to school close to home, while another would treat the entire city as one zone. But no plan maintains more than a 50 percent preference for students who live within walking distance. (Elementary-school students who live within a mile of a particular school are in that school’s "walk zone"; for middle-school students, the distance increases to 1.5 miles.)

For some Bostonians — including Tobin, who heads the city council’s Education Committee — that doesn’t go far enough toward a neighborhood-schools framework. In May, Tobin submitted his own plan, which would make every seat in every school available to students who live within walking distance. If a particular school were filled by kids who satisfy this criteria, the matter would end there. If not, the remaining seats would be made available to students living anywhere in the city. Tobin argues that this arrangement would maximize parental involvement and bolster student and school performance. But a City Hall source close to Menino argues that, under Tobin’s plan, the most popular schools would immediately fill up with neighborhood kids — and that the only real choice would come when other parents are forced to decide which unpopular schools to send their children to. If Menino frowns on Tobin’s plan, the councilor faces a tough sell — especially since the School Committee, which needs to approve any changes before they’re implemented, is appointed by the mayor.

Then there’s Arroyo’s proposal, first articulated by the councilor in a Globe op-ed. In essence, Arroyo, a former Boston School Committee president, suggests keeping the current three-zone arrangement but increasing the "walk-zone preference" to 75 percent. However, Arroyo also opposes making any change in fall 2005, arguing that educational quality should be increased citywide before "mechanical" issues like student assignment are addressed. It’s a politically adroit stance, one that simultaneously nods to Arroyo’s liberal base and gives neighborhood-schools supporters something to cheer about. Arroyo’s solution has also won early praise from his at-large colleague Maura Hennigan. But with Hennigan widely viewed as a likely challenger to Menino in 2005, this could be a liability as much as an asset.

WHATEVER THE task force’s final recommendations, the assignment-plan review process could become politically explosive. Last month, the Lawyers’ Committee for Civil Rights Under Law of the Boston Bar Association — which was involved in the landmark Boston school-desegregation case of the 1970s, and recently helped overturn the state legislature’s 2001 redistricting plan (see "Back to the Drawing Board?", News and Features, November 7, 2003) — wrote to Landsmark, Reilinger, Menino, and Boston superintendent of schools Thomas Payzant, warning that any increase in walk-zone preference could re-segregate the city’s public schools and prompt a lawsuit. "Before the task force and others take any action changing the walk-to zones or the percentages, they have to be sure that they’re not creating, promoting, or maintaining racial segregation in any school," cautions Nadine Cohen, a Lawyers’ Committee attorney working with District Seven city councilor Chuck Turner and others opposed to changing the assignment plan.

Despite the review process’s shifting timetable, Reilinger, the School Committee chair, says she’s confident any change could still be instituted in fall 2005. If so, a legal challenge could become a major headache for Menino, who is expected to seek a fourth term as mayor next year. Eight years ago, Menino urged voters to judge his merits as a leader based on progress in the schools. If large segments of Boston’s African-American, Asian-American, and Latino communities conclude the assignment-plan reassessment has been mismanaged or rigged — or that any changes hurt rather than help their children — a mayoral challenger would have a ready-made issue.

Ultimately, though, the political implications of the assignment-plan debate are much larger. In 1970, before the school-desegregation battles began, Boston’s white population exceeded 524,000. By 2000, it had dropped to 291,000. Because Latinos lacked a US Census category in 1970, these numbers merit an asterisk; even so, the connection between white flight and changes in Boston’s schools is impossible to miss. It’s been amply documented that, in 2000, Boston became a "minority-majority" city — that is, one in which blacks, Asians, and Latinos outnumber whites. A revamped assignment plan could drive more whites to leave the city; conversely, it could prompt them to stay put or even move back. It’s simplistic to assume that citizens consider only their race or ethnicity when they step up to the ballot box. That said, race and ethnicity do matter politically — and changes to the assignment plan could help determine the city’s balance of power for decades to come.

Adam Reilly can be reached at areilly[a]phx.com