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Tolman’s quest
Throughout the summer, Warren Tolman placed last in polls of the crowded Democratic gubernatorial field. But just in time for the fall, when voters pay attention, he’s making waves.
BY SETH GITELL

ONE THING THOSE of us who cover politics are aware of and even sometimes despair of, but rarely write about, is how completely disengaged most of the public is from the political process. (In one infamous example, a 2000 NBC news report showed that more people recognized Colonel Harlan Sanders, of Kentucky Fried Chicken fame, than either of the presidential candidates.) So when we cover candidates, especially those running behind in the polls, and they start yammering about how support in the South Coast or Lowell or Norwood is really picking up, we take it with a grain of salt. We know that what this really means is that candidate X has garnered the endorsement of a local state representative or perhaps a mayor. There’s no procession of cider-swilling supporters marching through the streets with bands and banners on behalf of any of the candidates in the way of the political campaigns of the 1840s.

That’s what makes it so amazing when a candidate, any candidate, is able to generate interest among the public at large. And that’s exactly what’s happening with Warren Tolman’s campaign for governor right now. More amazing still, Tolman, who won the 1998 lieutenant governor’s Democratic Primary but lost in the general election, is breaking many of the traditional political rules in his run for governor. Not least of these is how he’s financing his campaign: Tolman is the only gubernatorial candidate running under the Clean Elections system. (Green Party candidate Jill Stein tried, but failed, to meet the qualifying requirements.) To date, he’s received $3 million from the state for his campaign.

Tolman’s also breaking rules in how he’s spending his money. His first two forays onto the airwaves were dark, menacing ads decrying "corruption" on Beacon Hill. The first was aired May 15 and attacked House Speaker Tom Finneran. ("Tom Finneran decides which lobbyists get money in the state budget. Hours later shakes down those same special interests for more than $100,000.... Warren Tolman is ... the only one who’ll end the corruption.") The second attacked Senate president Tom Birmingham as well as Finneran ("November, 2001. Accounting fraud destroys Enron. Within days, Tom Finneran and Tom Birmingham pass a law protecting the big accounting firms.") The ads were lambasted by Tolman’s opponents in the race as well as political pundits across the spectrum. "I don’t think going negative is a good idea, particularly before you define yourself with the public," says gubernatorial candidate former secretary of labor Robert Reich, reflecting conventional wisdom about campaign advertising.

Spend time with Tolman on the campaign trail, though, and it becomes clear that his ad strategy is working. Most people who meet Tolman don’t seem to be aware of his first two ads. Or, if they are, the ads didn’t make much of an impression. What they are aware of is Tolman’s hairstyle — or lack thereof. Tolman’s third spot, which began running two weeks ago, has clearly broken through. The ad (you can view it online at www.tolman2002.com) runs through a litany of biographical facts about Tolman — how he, as a state senator from Watertown, fought the tobacco industry, how he battled Finneran over Clean Elections, and, finally, how the Boston Herald called him "hot" (a bit of an overstatement: the Herald named him the "Who’s Hot" politician one week in late July.) The kicker comes when Tolman’s wife declares "I think he’s hot," and then the candidate proclaims,

"Some people ... think bald is beautiful," as he rubs his shiny pate.

Here’s what you hear when you’re with Tolman on the campaign trail since that ad, and a second one that ends with Tolman standing with four other bald men, began running. From a 17-year-old from Groveland: "I recognize you from the commercial. The bald commercial, right!" From a middle-aged woman: "You got a nice head." From a man rushing to get a train: "There’s that bald guy." From a man with a receding hairline who takes a Tolman campaign flyer: "Bald is beautiful." And this, from an elderly Greek woman selling baklava at a Greek festival who pats her white hair with both hands as she talks: "I see you on TV. You go like this."

The Herald may describe the ads as "cheesy," as it did last week. And legendary ad man Bill Hillsman, who helped create the craze for quirky, unconventional campaign ads with his work on the first Senate campaign of Minnesota senator Paul Wellstone (Wellstone tries to nab opponent Rudy Boschwitz with a camera crew ˆ la Roger and Me) and the gubernatorial campaign of Jesse Ventura in 1998 (Jesse as action figure), contends that they don’t’ work because they contain an uncomfortable mix of traditional campaign style with humor. But those critiques are really beside the point. People now know who Tolman is.

When I was shadowing Tolman last week for this story, something happened to me that hasn’t happened in seven years of political reporting. I was repeatedly mistaken for a campaign worker. Why? Because I’m bald, too. As I stood next to Tolman scribbling notes in a reporter’s notebook, many people simply assumed I was somehow affiliated with his campaign. When Tolman was shaking hands at North Station Friday night, a young woman shouted out to me as she passed by: "Good luck, you guys!" Another asked Tolman why he had "his guy" (that would be me) taking notes. In the past, when I’ve hung out with a candidate for a story, asking questions and taking notes, it’s readily understood that I’m a journalist. But after walking around with Tolman at another event Friday night — and taking notes — people continued to make comments to me about the candidate even after he had gone. These interactions bear out what some political experts have come to believe: Tolman could be the big sleeper candidate in this race.

For months Tolman campaigned under the radar screen — almost anonymously. But while the polls showed that few voters knew Tolman, they also showed that very few held a negative impression of him. So when Tolman finally went on the air with his ads, his numbers had nowhere to go but up — a dynamic the candidate believes is currently under way. Blogger John Ellis (www.johnellis.blogspot.com) fed the Tolman boomlet recently, quoting Opinion Dynamics pollster John Gorman referring to Tolman as the "the sleeper in the race."

Of course, it’s impossible to say whether the folks who now recognize Tolman, thanks to his bald ads, are actually going to go to the polls — much less vote for him. And Tolman couldn’t produce any polling data to that effect — the anecdotal evidence may not be borne out by the facts. But the strange alchemy of combining millions of dollars in public financing with a creatively quirky ad campaign, has allowed Tolman to do something almost no one — with the possible exception of Finneran, who fought so hard to scuttle Clean Elections financing — could have anticipated a year ago: score a late-breaking upset in the Democratic Primary. Tolman’s internal polls, as well as those of his opponents, suggest that as of last week, his support among voters had crept up from nine percent to between 12 and 15 percent. This would place him closer to Senate president Birmingham — if not ahead of him — who's regularly polled third in the race after Treasurer Shannon O’Brien and Reich.

"Two weeks ago I sensed it. Last week I could feel it. This week I see it. It’s 180 degrees from where it was even three weeks ago," says Tolman of his rising place in the polls. And at North Station on Friday, after an army of potential voters marched past him, many of them shouting words of encouragement, Tolman turned to me and said: "I tell you, I’m not at 15 percent any more."

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Issue Date: August 29 - September 5, 2002
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