Expose Romney’s social conservatism. As Romney has glided through much of the primary campaign, his right-leaning positions on social issues, such as abortion and gay rights, have remained free from scrutiny. O’Brien described Romney as "masquerading as a moderate" Tuesday night. GOP lieutenant-gubernatorial candidate Jim Rappaport performed a valuable service to Democrats during his bitter primary battle with Romney’s hand-picked running mate, Kerry Murphy Healey, by forcing Romney to move right. One allegation made in Rappaport’s campaign mailings, which seems to have gotten under Romney’s skin, is that he and Healey support gay marriage. The Romney team evidently believed this claim to be so damning that they sent Healey to refute it on television. Of course, O’Brien, who backs civil unions, doesn’t support gay marriage either, but that’s beside the point. This is all about positioning. You won’t see O’Brien, who introduced the partner of her openly lesbian younger sister Gaelan on stage Tuesday night, traipsing around the state proclaiming her opposition to gay marriage the way Healey did in the waning days of the primary battle.

On abortion, things get even better for the Democratic ticket. In a July 2001 letter to the Salt Lake City Tribune, Romney declared, "I do not wish to be labeled pro-choice." He now promises Massachusetts voters that he won’t interfere with abortion rights and takes what is, in effect, a pro-choice position. Still, the relatively recent flip-flop won’t help him with women voters and others who care about choice in Massachusetts.

Nobody thinks the gubernatorial election will hinge on either gay rights or abortion, but consider this: no state Republican has won office by running with socially conservative credentials. William Weld won the governor’s office in 1990 thanks in part to his progressive positions on women’s issues and gay rights. Back then, progressives rallied behind Weld and ran away from BU president John Silber — now in the news for banning a gay/straight student alliance from meeting at BU Academy. An even more conservative foil such as Silber won’t be available to Romney this time around.

But more than any individual position Romney takes on a social issue, the potential perception that he’s trying to have things both ways will hurt him with exactly the kind of independent voter he needs to woo. Romney’s appeal comes from his status as the "outsider" who will "fix things on Beacon Hill." However, the more he obfuscates and changes his positions, the more he begins to resemble an ordinary politician. Says one O’Brien operative, who requested anonymity: "The question is, is he campaigning as Mitt Romney or is he campaigning as just another politician?" If Romney is perceived as just another politician, he loses.

Finally, Romney may be hurt as much as helped by the visit President George W. Bush is planning to make here October 4. It’s true that Bush is still basking in his post–September 11 popularity. And he has begun to do an able job in rallying support for a potential American war with Iraq. But none of that has anything to do with the kind of issues that the state election will hinge on. As far as domestic and state politics goes, former president Bill Clinton, who will appear at a Democratic fundraiser later in October, is still far more popular among Bay Staters than Bush — who was demolished here twice in the 2000 presidential election, first by Arizona senator John McCain and then by former vice-president Al Gore. Bush’s visit will only underscore the extent to which Romney is politically out of step with the state’s mainstream — and its all-important independent voters.

Tie Romney to failed past Republican gubernatorial administrations. To defeat Romney, O’Brien must take away the Republican candidate’s most important basis of appeal: that only he has the "outsider" credentials to fix the mess on Beacon Hill. Romney has already begun paving the way for that appeal with very effective television spots focused on Big Dig cost overruns: if voters want a leader who is capable of fixing problems like the Big Dig’s bloated budget, then they’ve got to go with Romney. Therefore, O’Brien’s ability to win a general race against Romney is directly tied to her ability to connect him to the three prior Republican governors who have helped get the state into its current trouble. Consider the decision before voters: they can vote for a Republican businessman who can point to an admitted success at the 2002 Winter Olympics and who says nothing about Governors William Weld, Paul Cellucci, or Jane Swift. Or they can vote for O’Brien, who actually forced a Republican administration to come clean with Big Dig cost numbers in the winter of 2000. If O’Brien can convince voters that she did exactly what she claims she did — that is, "blew the whistle on the Big Dig" — she wins. The Democratic nominee began to tie Romney to past Republican administrations during her acceptance speech: "It is imperative, for our elderly, our working families, for our children, that we put an end to three different — and indifferent — Republican administrations."

One glaring omission of the Romney campaign thus far has been its inability to deal with the mistakes of the three prior Republican governors and former Republican treasurer Joe Malone. Should Romney attack O’Brien’s record at the Treasury — as the state Republican Party has done in radio ads, going so far as to characterize it as a "disaster" — Romney opens the door to questions about Malone’s tenure there. After all, he employs Malone’s former spokesman, Eric Fehrnstrom, in the same capacity that Malone did. As O’Brien has pointed out, since the same person who defended Malone is now speaking for Romney, the Republican candidate can’t disassociate himself completely from Malone’s administration. Romney can’t have it both ways. It’ll be interesting to see what he tries to do, and whether the Democrats will be able to answer.

Already the Democrats have put forward a more united front than they have during the last three elections. The O’Brien-Gabrieli ticket combines social conscience with fiscal prudence in a way that can appeal to the state’s voter-rich suburbs. It is a smart, well-focused team. It will need to be. Romney is a formidable opponent.

Seth Gitell can be reached at sgitell[a]phx.com