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The 2003 National League preview
BY CHRISTOPHER YOUNG

Again, as I mentioned last week, I fully agree and admit that a publication’s baseball preview should be completed and published before the regular season actually starts. Logistical complications delayed the process, and though many pro teams have already played a couple of series, I will write under the assumption that everybody’s 0-0, and that the first hardball has yet to be hurled.

A month ago, we published a column which noted that of the 30 teams comprising Major League Baseball, 14 had pretty much been eliminated before the first "Star-Spangled Banner" had been warbled in Anaheim on March 30. You can find that column here, along with the American League preview. Today, the National League:

• NL East: a lot of folks believe the Braves’ run of 12 consecutive division titles is going to be history by October, but I am not among those ready to write Atlanta’s obit just yet. After all, this is a team that won 101 games last year and won the division by a ridiculously easy 19 games. Granted, they lost a couple of starters (Tom Glavine, Kevin Millwood) from last year’s rotation that led the NL in ERA, but they replaced them with a trio of intriguing replacements: Mike Hampton, who struggled in Colorado the past couple of years despite a mega-contract; Russ Ortiz, who won 14 for the Giants en route to the NL pennant; and Paul Byrd, who racked up 17 wins for a lousy KC club last season. While Byrd and Hampton both started the season on the disabled list with minor aches, the Braves still have Greg Maddux, who has won 15 or more games each of the past 15 seasons, and former starter John Smoltz, who set a league record with 55 saves last year. Atlanta has done much to upgrade its aging offense, but pitching wins pennants, or at least divisions, and the Braves have that in spades. Philadelphia, in the meantime, made the biggest splash in the free-agent market, reeling in Cleveland slugger Jim Thome, Giants third baseman David Bell, and Atlanta’s Millwood (via trade). The Phillies have some good young sluggers in the line-up, and while the team’s lack of pitching depth may hurt them, they do have former Red Sox manager/pitching coach Joe Kerrigan to help sort it out, which is a job in which he excelled in Boston. The Mets underachieved mightily last year, but it’s hard to imagine Roberto Alomar and Mo Vaughn floundering for two years in a row, and the idea of a return to form for those two superstars, along with catcher Mike Piazza, gives Mets fans hope. In addition, New York picked up Atlanta’s Glavine, Boston’s Cliff Floyd, and the Yanks’ Mike Stanton to help return the club to its former greatness. Whether bringing 40-year-old David Cone out of retirement is a good idea or a bad one, the Mets, under former A’s skipper Art Howe, should provide a lot more excitement than they’ve exhibited in the recent past. Montreal, though a second-place team in the East last year, will suffer because of its brutal traveling schedule (see link above), and the Marlins simply do not have the level of talent to survive in this group.

NL Central: in June, Red Sox fans will get their first regular-season look at the Cardinals at Fenway Park since Bob Gibson shut ’em down in Game Seven of the 1967 World Series. St. Louis has not won the Fall Classic since 1982, but in recent years they’ve made regular trips to the post-season, including last season’s trip to the NLCS. Manager Tony La Russa hasn’t been able to lead the squad back to the promised land during his seven-year stint here, but that hasn’t stopped the team from claiming four division titles under his watch. Only one of this year’s starters won more than 10 games last year (Matt Morris, 17-9), but the rest of the rotation is reasonably solid, and the Cards are deep both offensively and defensively. Front to back, and barring significant injury, America’s best baseball town could very well see its favorite sons return to the Series this fall for the first time in 16 years. Jimy Williams’s Astros will also be in the hunt this year, but they are not nearly as solid beyond the top two starters in the rotation. Newly signed Jeff Kent will team up with established sluggers Lance Berkman and Jeff Bagwell to pose one of the most threatening 3-4-5 batting-order combos in the league, but they can’t offset the fact that beyond pitchers Roy Oswalt and Wade Miller, Houston’s rotation is questionable, and will struggle to overtake the Cards, although they could contend for a wild-card spot. The rest of the division — the Cubs, Reds, Pirates, and Brewers — all are deeply flawed, and only the Cubs, under former Giants skipper Dusty Baker, could surprise. The payrolls alone (Cincy $56m, Pittsburgh $54m, Milwaukee $40m) would seem to eliminate these teams, but there is a dearth of talent on the rosters, and only changes in ownership and philosophy would bring hope to these long-suffering baseball towns.

NL West: a yearlong race to the finish will provide plenty of exciting baseball for at least three of this division’s teams. That’s not to say that they’re all dynamite teams; it’s just that they all are pretty closely matched, with age and pitching most likely emerging as the key factors in success or failure. As usual, the success of the 2001 World Champs the Diamondbacks hinges on the strength of its two aces, Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling. What bothers me, however, is that these two guys are 39 and 36, respectively, and both have been in bringing heat for a long time (Johnson for 17 major-league seasons, Schilling for 15). Beyond those two greybeards in the rotation are a couple of guys named Elmer Dessens and John Patterson, followed by the D-Backs’ former closer, Byung-Hyun Kim (he of the infamous World-Series meltdowns in the Bronx in 2001). Only one player in the starting line-up batted over .301 last season, and Arizona will regularly have six guys in the field over the age of 30. If either Schilling or Johnson falters or ends up on the DL for a substantial portion of time, the Diamondbacks will suffer the consequences lickety-split-fingered fastball. Among the teams that will be right on their rattling tail all season long will be the Dodgers, who finished 22 games above .500 last year and were a remarkably consistent 46-35 at home and on the road. The key to LA’s pennant hopes rides on the arm of 38-year-old righty Kevin Brown, who has earned $60 million over the past four seasons while providing only 29 wins (due to an assortment of injuries), but who, if healthy, can significantly bolster a starting rotation that got 45 wins out of its top three starters last season (Odalis Perez, Hideo Nomo, and Kazuhisa Ishii). Fireballer Eric Gagne set a Dodger record with 52 saves last season, and while the overall pitching staff is potent, the offense is questionable, with only outfielders Brian Jordan and Shawn Green having batted .285 last season. The Giants hope to give Barry Bonds at least one more chance at the brass ring after San Francisco lost a heartbreaking seven-game World Series to Anaheim last fall. Despite that mercurial season, the Giants still didn’t see fit to extend their manager’s contract, and that’s why Dusty Baker is patrolling the dugout at the Friendly Confines instead of watching Bonds’s prodigious home runs sail into McCovey Cove. Baker’s replacement, Felipe Alou, is no slouch, but he’ll also be 68 years old next month, and hasn’t managed for nearly two years following his 10-year tenure at the helm of the Expos. In addition to losing Baker, San Francisco lost Bell, Kent, Kenny Lofton, and Reggie Sanders to free agency; starters Livan Hernandez and Russ Ortiz in trades; and closer extraordinaire Robb Nen to the DL, where he will begin the season after an off-season right-shoulder surgery. The additions of Edgardo Alfonzo, Marquis Grissom, Jose Cruz Jr., Damian Moss, and Ray Durham will offset some of those departures, but it’s always dangerous to mess with team chemistry, especially when the team was so close to capturing the franchise’s first West Coast championship last season. But any team with Bonds — the five-time NL MVP and the reigning batting champion (.370) — in the line-up on a regular basis must be considered a contender, despite his advanced years (he’ll be 39 in July). Colorado and San Diego round out this competitive division, and neither team has the pitching depth nor the offensive firepower needed to match up with the three well-rounded squads against which they’ll play the bulk of their schedules.

Recap: this will probably be the last season Atlanta continues its dominance atop the NL East, but its best chance at a world championship came and went a few years back. The Braves will more than likely make the post-season, but the weary pitching arms and bats in October will be no match for the likes of St. Louis, Arizona, or LA in the playoffs. The hopes of the D-Backs and Dodgers overwhelmingly ride on the health of their pitching staffs, and any significant injuries will derail those teams’ hopes for any kind of post-season glory. That’s why overall team depth is best, and St. Louis would seem to have the edge in the National League. Look for the Braves, Cards, and Snakes to win the divisions, and the Dodgers to capture the wild card over the Astros.

FYI: four days to Opening Day at Fenway Park, and the temperature rests at a cool 37 degrees Fahrenheit, with the possibility of a half foot of snow expected later Monday.

Sporting Eye runs Mondays and Fridays at BostonPhoenix.com, and Christopher Young can be reached at cyoung[a]phx.com

 

Issue Date: April 7, 2003
"Sporting Eye" archives: 2002

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