Bugging out

Computer chaos, Asian flu, the new puritanism, and baby boomers ascendant -- welcome to 1999

by Neil Miller

On January 1, 2000, the doomsayers warn, we may wake up to a world beyond our wildest apocalyptic imaginings -- one with no electricity, heat, or running water, to say nothing of banks that have lost track of our money, fire trucks whose ladders won't work, and air-traffic-control systems and train signals that have shut down. It's the worst-case scenario of the new millennium. Dubbed the "millennium bug" and "the year-2000 problem," Y2K is the technological glitch in which computer programs and microchips -- programmed to identify years by their last two digits only -- will think that the millennium hasn't arrived after all, that the year 2000 is really only the year 1900. The result: massive malfunction of the complex systems on which modern civilization relies.

Fast forward Prediction are a perilous business, as those proponents of the end-of-the-world-by-computer-error may discover if everything goes all right on January 1, 2000. Still, the arrival of 1999 has encouraged a variety of prognosticators to make forecasts, some of which spill over into the new millennium as well. We've consulted two high-profile crystal-ball gazers; here are their reports. The World Future Society This nonprofit educational and scientific organization, which publishes the monthly magazine The Futurist, serves as a clearinghouse for ideas about the future. Its "Top 10 Predictions from Outlook '99" are: 1. High-tech companies will lure workers by offering subsidized housing that is wired to the workplace. 2. Tamper-proof paper will thwart forgers by revealing chemical erasures and pressures of any kind caused by pens or printers. 3. "Breathing walls" -- ecosystems growing on indoor walls -- may be a cure for sick-building syndrome. 4. Tiny flying robots will be used to gather data in inaccessible, dangerous places such as battlefields. 5. More cities will use trees and green cover to cast shade on buildings, helping lower energy costs and improve air quality. 6. More seafood will be produced without the sea thanks to aquaculture. 7. Infectious disease could become even more devastating in the future as human populations grow denser in "megacities," where disease spreads more rapidly. 8. Retail stores and wholesalers may disappear as more people flock to the Web for more-convenient electronic shopping. 9. Wearable computers for senior citizens will be developed, with face-recognition systems to help users recognize acquaintances. 10. Popular alternatives to retirement will include starting a new business, becoming a teacher, and "retiring" to a farm. The 'Popcorn Report' Faith Popcorn, America's most prominent prognosticator, claims that her forecasts have a documented 95 percent accuracy rate. Among her most famous predictions have been the rise of four-wheel drive, the collapse of New Coke, and the advent of home delivery. And these days her consulting firm, BrainReserve, numbers IBM, Pepsi/Lipton, Bell Atlantic, and BMW among its clients. In the December 1998 "Popcorn Report" she promises, "Time will be the new currency. We'll spend it, save it, invest it, and trade it -- the way we did with money in the 1980s and '90s." She also states, "I predict that by 2010, 90 percent of consumer products will be home-delivered." Among her latest forecasts: E-mail will take over everything as we order medical procedures, homes, and even spouses on the Web. College degrees will be earned entirely online. E-checks will rule the day. There will be no more paper checkbooks. Employee bonuses will include time, not money. "Spirituality breaks" will become part of the workday. Luxury, at-home spa vacations will become popular. Cell phones will include health-diagnostic scanners. If that isn't enough, Popcorn offers nine resolutions for the new decade: 1. Keep promises 2. Trust instincts 3. Take time 4. Quit jobs 5. Start businesses 6. Find peace 7. Find balance 8. Feed brain 9. Breathe deeply Any questions?

The best-case scenario isn't much more comforting, say Y2K true believers. Even if computers fare better than expected, human panic may present an even greater peril. In this scenario, individuals hoard money, food, and medicine, and businesses stockpile large amounts of products and supplies. The result: economic disruption, even chaos. And even if the US manages to fix Y2K, other countries may not be able to do so in time.

Welcome to 1999, the year of living dangerously. As the countdown to 2000 begins, anxiety about the arrival of the new millennium prepares to take center stage. In fact, the year 1999 may barely exist in the popular consciousness except as the immediate prelude to the dreaded 2000. "The next year will be a cumulative public panic attack about the fact that we are now at the gateway of the year 2000," says Boston political consultant Kevin Sowyrda. "This will be one of the undercurrents of pop culture."

And, according to millennium-watchers and trend-spotters, Y2K will be the focal point of that anxiety, an anxiety likely to grow as the year progresses. You might say that if Y2K didn't exist, someone would have to invent it. Even if there were no basis to it at all, you couldn't ask for more-perfect symbolism -- apocalypse by computer error on the very morning of the millennium. "In 1999, you have ordinary millennial fever, you have Christian millennial fever, and you have Y2K," says Robert Theobald, a Spokane, Washington-based economist and futurist. "What you need to get ready for is to be more prepared to live in the rapids of change. It's going to be a very odd year."

In fact, the main theme of 1999 may well be a search for stability in a world that seems increasingly out of joint. Futurist and marketer Faith Popcorn has been onto this idea for a while, of course, pioneering such concepts as cocooning (the retreat into "home safe home") and anchoring ("reaching back to our spiritual roots, taking what was secure from the past in order to be ready for the future"). Whether that stability can be found is anyone's guess. But, Popcorn aside, there is still no shortage of pundits and predictions as we move into the last year of the century.

It's the economy, stupid

As in any more-normal year, the economy is a major question. In New England, the rate of job creation has already moderated over the past several months. The likelihood is that the rate of growth will continue to slow next year, according to Yolanda Kodrzycki, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank in Boston. There are two major factors responsible for the slowdown, she says: the Asian economic crisis, which has caused a decline in demand for US export goods, and the very tight US labor market. The tight labor market hurts Massachusetts especially, inhibiting the expansion of service industries such as software, which require a highly skilled work force.

The Federal Reserve tries to project a steady-at-the-helm approach; not surprisingly, Kodrzycki is doubtful that millennial fever is going to have much psychological effect on the economy in '99. She recalls that as we approached the year 1984 -- with its reminder of George Orwell's vision of a totalitarian future -- similar expressions of gloom and doom predominated. That talk stopped once 1984 actually arrived. And although Y2K will be a "focus of anxiety toward the end of the year," she concedes, attempts to solve the computer glitch could actually help the Massachusetts economy. "For a lot of the year, Y2K is going to be a positive for this state, which has so many consultants and software specialists," she says. "They are going to be very busy trying to solve Y2K problems."

In an increasingly globalized marketplace, what happens abroad can have a major effect on the US. And Kodrzycki says that, despite some promising signs, the Asian economic crisis isn't over yet, and the US manufacturing sector could still catch a mild case of the "Asian flu" in the coming months. But Alice Amsden, professor of political economics at MIT, predicts that in '99 the Asian economy will begin to rebound. The Asian "tigers" are starting to restructure, with bigger companies, bigger banks, and greater economic concentration, she says. "In some ways, when the Asians shape up, the US does better," Amsden says. "In some ways it does much worse. The idea of the Japanese economy coming out of its torpor and onto the scene again will provide an interesting turn of events."

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A revival of the Asian economies raises a new set of political issues, Amsden notes -- ranging from a possible decline in American influence to old quarrels about political democracy versus economic democracy to questions about the social role of Asian women. "A new world is looming in Asia," she says. And while the usual international trouble spots will remain in '99 -- the Middle East and the Balkans, to name two -- Amsden suggests that Africa is another place to keep an eye on. The civil war in Angola is heating up again and the war in the Congo continues, challenging the international community to take action.

Post-impeachment purity

A more immediate challenge for America, however, may be regaining respect in the aftermath of a year of preoccupation with impeachment and presidential peccadilloes. These concerns have made the US "a laughingstock internationally," says Amsden. Although this doesn't necessarily weaken US power abroad, it does "tarnish" America's image and leadership role, she contends, which will require some retooling in the coming year.

At home, 1999 will be the first post-impeachment political year. It is also the year the presidential campaign begins in earnest, with politicians trudging through the snows of New Hampshire (and Massachusetts, too). Boston political consultant Sowyrda predicts that, after a year of Clinton, Lewinsky, and Larry Flynt, the big issue of '99 will be the "purification of American politics." As a result, he says, voters will be looking for someone totally uncharismatic, "a real stiff," as a candidate for president. "The candidate who is the most vestal virgin-esque will win," he maintains. On the Republican side, that could be Steve Forbes or Elizabeth Dole. (The chance of Elizabeth Dole's having a skeleton in her closet is "similar to the chance of Martha Stewart having a dirty kitchen," according to Sowyrda.) On the Democratic side, Al Gore ("the strongest believer in fidelity next to the pope"), John Kerry, and Bill Bradley all fit the chaste-and-boring mold.

Sowyrda's perfect candidate: Jimmy Carter. The former president has an unblemished moral reputation and has successfully reninvented himself as an international statesman since leaving the White House -- and has apparently kept his lust in his heart. "He could make a comeback," says Sowyrda, half tongue-in-cheek. "It's happened before." And his sleeper candidate: New Hampshire governor Jean Shaheen. "She exudes confidence," he says. "She would be a great VP pick."

A major factor here, Sowyrda says, is not only the hangover from impeachment but also the psychological impact of entering the new millennium. "People are anxious about going into a new century, so they are looking for stability," he says. "If there is one commodity that is going to be for sale in 1999, that commodity is confidence. The campaign starts in 1999, and confidence will be the ultimate elixir of 1999."

Boston liberal activist Jim Braude agrees that the fallout from "the embarrassment" in Washington will have an impact on 1999, but in a different way. He thinks it offers a "huge opening for a true populist" -- not a candidate as offbeat as ex-wrestler-turned-Minnesota-governor Jesse Ventura, but maybe someone more like that state's US senator, Paul Wellstone. Turned off by Clinton's legal hairsplitting and the stage-managed nature of American politics, the American people want someone who resembles the genuine article. Even if the public isn't enamored of the message, it may embrace the messenger if he seems trustworthy. The alternative, Braude contends, is "complete revulsion and turnoff of people from politics and government."

As for the notion that Americans will embrace morality in the aftermath of the Clinton scandals, Braude isn't buying. "Nobody believes that any politician is as moral as he or she would suggest they are," he says. "Voters are not going to find the Holy Grail. They are not going to find the perfectly moral politician."

And he isn't convinced that millennium anxiety will be a factor, either. "The only bigger nonevent than the millennium is Bob Kraft's move to Hartford," he says. "People may think they are influenced by the millennium, but they are not going to know how that translates into any specific behavior."

Baby-boom towns

Beyond the insecurity and uncertainty, 1999 may have a brighter side that would bring a smile to the face of an unabashed liberal like Braude. That is a more self-assertive outlook on the part of the American public, according to trend-spotter Betsy Wachtel, director of information and resources at the Boston advertising firm of Hill Holliday Connors Cosmopulos. This has to do in part with prosperity, in part with the maturing of the baby-boom generation, and in part with that overhyped millennium. "Once you hit 2000, you want to be looking forward, not backward," she says. "You don't want to be seen as coming from the last century. This encourages a more proactive, optimistic outlook."

Americans are becoming increasingly self-reliant, Wachtel argues, determined to "do it my way." For a long time, baby boomers haven't trusted institutions -- there is nothing new in that -- but now they are beginning to trust themselves. In that respect, she says, they are moving closer to Generation X, the latchkey kids who have had to be self-reliant from the get-go.

The new self-assertion will manifest itself in a number of ways in 1999, according to Wachtel. For one thing, baby-boomer consumers will take on the health-care industry. "It used to be that people complained about cost," she says. "Now they are talking about quality and access, and a real fear that they will get dropped or their parents won't get prescription drugs covered. Now, people are writing Xs on their legs to show what leg is being operated on."

Another issue that baby boomers will take on "big-time" in '99 is education. "They have already begun," she says. "That's what charter schools are all about." And she believes there will be "growing unrest" from a public that doesn't feel it has been well represented in Congress, especially in light of the impeachment debate.

The new self-assertion is being manifested in the workplace, too, with human-resources departments being forced to offer more perks to employees. If a company can't offer long-term security, Wachtel says, it has to provide something else -- growth opportunities or skills or a chance to do something for the community on company time.

These ongoing developments lead Wachtel to take an upbeat view of '99. "People are feeling more empowered," she says. "They don't feel so much the victim of constant change. They feel they can come through it, that they can come out ahead."

All this takes us back to Y2K. The computer glitch makes for a great symbol of millennial anxiety, but what if one or more of the chaos scenarios does come to pass? If that happens, those evolving qualities of self-assertion and self-reliance may stand us all in good stead. As Sowyrda says, "Some people will handle Y2K by partying their brains out. Others will handle it by digging caves in the woods. Other people will handle it by simply handling it." Fasten your seat belts. Nineteen-ninety-nine is here.

Neil Miller can be reached at MrNeily@aol.com.