What's next

Power struggles, floundering schools, and the death penalty will highlight the year to come in state politics

by Michael Crowley

At the end of a year in Massachusetts state politics that was defined by feverish, nonstop campaigning -- for governor, for Congress, for attorney general, even for a new football stadium -- the dawn of election-free 1999 reminds us of an oft-forgotten truth: somebody's actually got to govern the damn place.

Not that our elected officials ever really stop scheming to postpone their checkout time from the Hotel Beacon Hill. But it is generally true that in an off year, the politicians are a little more willing to get things done rather than simply to posture or cover their asses.

Or so we hope. Thanks to a seemingly Viagra-powered economy, the state enjoys the wealth and stability necessary to take care of pressing social and economic needs, from repairing our feeble public schools to ensuring that today's prosperity trickles down to everybody. After a campaign season filled with attack ads, simplistic sloganeering, and egos running amok, Massachusetts could use some clear thinking and political cooperation on big policy issues that affect everyday life in the state.

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the year ahead

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At the same time, the egos remain large and the politics of symbolism remains potent. And so we can look forward to the usual doses of one-upsmanship and emotionally charged political battles, from power struggles on Beacon Hill to yet another showdown over the death penalty. With that in mind, here's a closer look at some of the issues and battles likely to dominate Massachusetts politics in 1999.

Alpha male. For the past two years or so, House Speaker Tom Finneran (D-Mattapan) has been the de facto governor of Massachusetts, ramming through bills he likes, killing those he doesn't, and hogging all the publicity. But there are signs that Governor Paul Cellucci and Senate president Tom Birmingham (D-Chelsea) may seek to change that in 1999. Cellucci, for instance, no longer bears the illegitimacy of the "Acting Governor" title. Now that he's won an election in his own right, he may flex more muscle against the supremely self-confident Speaker -- particularly when it comes to their disagreements over big tax cuts and the death penalty (Cellucci backs both; Finneran doesn't). Some clever scheduling by Cellucci should get his year off on the right foot: he'll be giving his State of the State address a few days earlier than usual -- on January 7, the day he's officially inaugurated. For the past two years, Finneran has hubristically upstaged the governor, treating the legislature to a preemptive sermon of his own. This year, it looks as though Cellucci will beat Finneran to the punch. As for Birmingham, he was clearly annoyed by Finneran's stubborn refusal to cut a deal that would have kept the New England Patriots in Massachusetts. Perhaps Birmingham, whose liberal agenda has often been derailed by the Speaker, will show a little more fight in '99.

School daze. Easily the number-one issue of 1998, education is named by virtually every elected official as a top priority for the year ahead. It had better be. A new round of standardized testing shows gross incompetence and ignorance among the state's public-school teachers and students. But identifying the problem will prove easier than solving it. Cellucci wants to hire more teachers to shrink class sizes (though he's opposed funding to build and repair school buildings) and backs competency testing for current teachers, not just applicants -- a reasonable but dicey proposition, given the power of the teachers' unions in the legislature. Tom Birmingham notes that the 1993 Education Reform Act's guarantee of $1.2 billion dollars in annual school funding will expire this year, and that the legislature must start budgeting for future expenditures.

Meanwhile, politicians at every level will work furiously to boost those MCAS scores, which have become a rare empirical measure of school quality. As the long-time liberal activist Jim Braude notes, test-score trajectory could become a defining issue in campaigns at all levels. "If you're an incumbent and the scores go up, that's your campaign," Braude says. "If the scores go down, that's your incumbent's campaign." Although there's a risk that schools will become "test-obsessed," Braude adds, "the good news is that all of these phony pols who want to be `the education this' and `the education that' are finally going to focus on education."

Life or death. After the death penalty failed by one vote in 1997, Cellucci vowed to recruit pro-capital punishment candidates and try again. He may have his chance in 1999. The measure still has strong support in the Senate, but even after the turnover of the 1998 elections the House remains deadlocked. However, 1999 may see several special elections to replace exiting state representatives that could tilt the balance toward gallows justice. A key issue is whether Finneran, a death-penalty opponent, will schedule a vote early in the year, when he's sure the measure won't pass.

Health scare. Thanks to a torrent of horror stories about bureaucrats' denying care to the mortally ill, health-maintenance organizations (HMOs) nearly surpassed Newt Gingrich as the villain of choice for Democrats and, eventually, poll-driven Republicans in 1998. But a bill to more closely regulate HMOs in Massachusetts -- giving patients the right to appeal decisions, for instance, and making it harder for HMOs to deny emergency treatment -- was stymied by Finneran despite support from Birmingham and (less enthusiastically) Cellucci. But Finneran, wary of rising health-care costs, now seems to be softening his position, and a "patients' bill of rights" seems likely to pass.

Wage rage. Like HMO reform, a 1998 bill raising the minimum wage was backed vigorously by Birmingham and tepidly by Cellucci -- and was nixed by Finneran. The wage-hiking forces are regrouping, however, and are optimistic about victory in '99, thanks to a still-strong economy and evidence that the gap between rich and poor has grown appallingly in Massachusetts. In a recent interview with the Phoenix, Birmingham called a wage hike one of his top priorities. (Last year the Senate passed a boost from the current hourly wage of $5.25 to $6.75, with an automatic yearly adjustment for inflation; Cellucci backed a hike to $6.15.) Progressives may enjoy pivotal backing in both battles from the all-powerful Senator Ted Kennedy, for whom both the minimum wage and HMOs are pet issues, and who is eager to display his effectiveness as he gears up for his reelection in 2000.

The economy, stupid. This will be 1999's ultimate political variable. Massachusetts has shared in the nation's unprecedented seven-year boom, which has given state government extra dollars for spending increases and tax cuts. But though the worst storm clouds of 1998 -- stock-market chaos, sweeping layoffs -- never translated into an expected recession, these gravy days can't last forever. Which is why now is such a good time for the Beacon Hill boys to put a real dent in their to-do list.

Michael Crowley can be reached at mcrowley[a]phx.com.