Auld lang wine

Decanting next year's grape trends

Uncorked by Thor Iverson

As the oenological clock ticks down to the millennium, it's time to predict the big wine stories of the upcoming year. That people will be drinking Champagne and other sparklers is a no-brainer (which has, nevertheless, appeared as Big News in nearly every publication we can think of), but there are plenty of other stories bubbling to the surface. Here's a small sampling of what's ahead.

Click here for a rundown of wine tastings, dinners, and events.

Direct shipping. Ground zero in 1999 is unquestionably going to be the battle over direct shipment of wine. All over the country, the right of individual consumers to purchase wines directly from a state other than their own is being legislated into extinction (in some states, it's now a felony to conduct a liquor transaction across state lines). In Massachusetts, shippers like FedEx and UPS have been intimidated by lawsuits brought by liquor distributors into refusing wine shipments.

What's at stake here is the right of consumers to purchase the wine they want. The overfunded liquor lobby hides its avarice behind the twin specters of child drinking and nonpayment of state taxes, but both are just smoke screens. Kids are not ordering limited-production $80 pinot noirs from California; they're buying beer with fake IDs down at the corner store. And the wineries and companies on the supply end are perfectly willing to pay whatever taxes are necessary. But consumers are finally getting organized, and this year should see some more-serious political and legal action.

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Health versus abstinence. There's another war fermenting, this one between neoprohibitionists and the growing body of scientific evidence that says that moderate wine consumption is very good for you. Wine helps prevent heart disease and certain cancers, battles cholesterol, and can stay the onset of Alzheimer's disease, according to many studies. Yet the anti-alcohol forces are determined to turn us all into teetotalers, and they don't seem to care that their cautionary statistics are all based on the abuse of alcohol, not the responsible enjoyment of it. Watch for the rhetoric to escalate in 1999.

Unstable prices. After years of meteoric rises in the price of the world's most sought-after wines, 1999 will be a year of "corrections." Bordeaux sellers badly misread the market for their pleasant but uninspiring '97s, and in combination with the worldwide recession this will lead to selloffs in the high-end wine market. Château Pétrus coming down from $900 to $300 per bottle might not affect many of us, but the market collapse will trickle down, relaxing prices on wines in the $15-$50 range. There will be a few exceptions: Burgundy, coming off two great years ('95 and '96) will see some increases, as will the new wave of upper-level Spanish wines.

Spain's rise, Italy's return. The explosion of outstanding Spanish wines at all price levels will continue, thanks to opportunistic winemakers and genius importers like Jorge Ordonez. Meanwhile, Italy's incredible '97 vintage will start pouring into stores, marking the return of that country to vinous prominence after several years of mediocre vintages.

AVAs. California's best and most visionary winemakers are going to push for an improved system of appellations (in the US, they're called American Viticultural Areas, or AVAs) to help them identify and codify the well-developed regional terroirs that have produced their best wines. Some producers will abandon their regular cuvée/reserve-cuvée system for a range of vineyard- and appellation-designated wines that will truly express their location, and existing appellations (like Sonoma County and Napa Valley) will be redrawn and subdivided to more accurately reflect the styles of wine they produce.

The fall of merlot. Well, maybe not, but the sea of low-quality California merlot is going to be replaced by a new wine-of-the-moment: syrah. The most obvious result will be a lot of mediocre, inexpensive syrah; despite this, serious producers will take advantage of the trend to make killer wines like top-quality syrah pioneers Qupe and Ojai. But this doesn't mean that merlot will disappear, because Washington (where the land and climate are well-suited for turning the lazy grape into profound wine) will forge ahead with outstanding varietal merlots and blends. As for white wines, don't expect anything from California to challenge chardonnay's dominance; most of the state just doesn't have the proper growing conditions for compelling wines made from alternative grapes like riesling or pinot gris.

Boston's wine explosion. This is a great time to be a wine lover in the Boston area. Not only do we have one of the coolest wine events in the country (the Wine Expo, January 23-24, call 1-877-WINEXPO for tickets), but the serious commitment to wine enjoyment and education in Boston's restaurants is almost overwhelming. Uva and Les Zygomates continue with stellar lists and fun tastings, the Vault combines the two with cooking at the highest level, and newcomers like Marché, Brix° 576, and Rauxa promote wine to an extent almost unheard of just a few years ago. If Boston's restaurant critics would only mention wine once in a while, the circle would be complete.

What to buy. So what should we wine lovers be spending barrels of money on this year? Champagne, of course. Also, anything from Italy's '97 vintage, almost anything from Spain (look for wines distributed by MRR Traders, because they carry the Ordonez wines), red and white Burgundy from the '95 and '96 vintages, and Alsace, Loire Valley, and German whites. Avoid Bordeaux until the prices come down a bit, or buy up any good '92s, '93s, and '94s still on the market. New Zealand and Argentine wines remain excellent buys. As for US wines, California is on a serious roll; buy anything from the '90s. Oregon's pinot noirs are going through a rough patch, but Washington wines are very strong and (so far) undervalued.

Just one more thing: if any or all of these predictions turn out to be wrong, don't expect to find out in next December's year-end column. We'll be too busy drinking Champagne and partying like it's . . . never mind.

Thor Iverson can be reached at wine[a]phx.com.

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